澳大利亚政府正式公布 2026–27 联邦预算

这不是一个单纯发钱的预算案，而是一个在油价冲击、通胀压力和住房焦虑之下，带有明显再分配色彩的“改革型预算”。

https://budget.gov.au/content/downloads.htm

澳大利亚政府正式公布的是 2026–27 Federal Budget，财政部长 Jim Chalmers 已在 2026年5月12日 提交预算案，主题是 “Resilience and reform”。官方说法是应对中东冲突导致的全球油价冲击，同时减轻生活成本压力，并推动税制、住房和生产率改革。 

生活成本方面，核心是给工作收入者减税，而不是大规模现金补贴。政府将推出最高 250澳元 的 Working Australians Tax Offset，从 2027–28 年度开始；同时从 2026年7月1日 起，把 18,201 到 45,000 澳元这一档的税率从 16% 降到 15%，2027年再降到 14%。另外还有 1000澳元免收据工作相关费用即时扣除，约 620万工薪族会受益。

燃油和能源是这次预算案的特殊背景。 政府推出 148亿澳元燃油韧性方案，包括增加燃油储备、建立政府控制的燃油安全储备，并且将燃油消费税减半三个月，重型车辆道路使用费也暂时降为零。预算还提出从 2027年7月1日 起实施 20% 国内天然气保留机制，要求 LNG 出口商把一部分产量留给澳洲国内市场。

住房和税制改革是政治上最重的一部分。 政府将从 2027年7月1日 起限制负扣税，原则上只允许新建住房享受负扣税；资本利得税也会从现在的 50% 折扣，改为基于通胀的折扣，并引入最低 30% 的资本利得税安排。预算说现有投资房会被 grandfathered，也就是预算夜之前已持有的房产不受新规则影响。

首次购房者是明显被照顾的群体。 政府预计负扣税和资本利得税改革会帮助约 75,000名澳大利亚人 进入自住房市场；同时预算安排 20亿澳元 做道路、管线、电力、排污等“最后一公里”基础设施，以加快新房建设，目标是支持 65,000套新住房。 

NDIS 是最大争议点之一。 预算将对 NDIS 做大幅改革，包括更清晰的资格评估、限制计划重审、加强反欺诈和监管。官方预计未来四年节省 378亿澳元，同时投入 20亿澳元 建立 Thriving Kids 项目，支持自闭症和神经发育相关儿童。

医疗和老年护理方面有投入，但养老金本身不是重点。 政府继续加强 Medicare、降低药品成本，并投入 37亿澳元 用于老年护理，包括增加养老院床位和 Support at Home packages。PBS 药品方面有新药纳入、普通患者最高自付额降至 25澳元、优惠卡人群自付额冻结到 2030年。

小企业和生产率方面，政府把 20,000澳元 instant asset write-off 永久化，并恢复 loss carry back，支持亏损企业把亏损抵扣此前年度税款。政府还说要减少监管负担，每年为企业节省约 102亿澳元，并提供最高 7000万澳元 AI Accelerator grants。 

财政底线仍然是赤字。 预算预计今年赤字约 315亿澳元，短期赤字略有改善，但预计要到 2034–35 才能回到平衡；总债务仍预计突破 1万亿澳元。这说明政府虽然拿到了一些额外税收和资源价格带来的收入，但整体财政压力没有消失。

我感觉这份预算案的政治含义很清楚：政府不再只是做短期生活补贴，而是借油价危机和住房压力，推动税制再平衡。工薪族、首次购房者、医疗和老年护理部门是主要受益者；投资房东、资本利得受益者、家庭信托、部分 NDIS 参与者，以及部分拥有私人医保的老年人，会感受到压力。

The 2026–27 Federal Budget is best understood as a cost-of-living and reform budget. It gives some direct relief to workers, but its larger political meaning is that the government is using the pressure from inflation, fuel prices and housing affordability to reshape parts of the tax system.

The main cost-of-living measure is tax relief for workers. The government will introduce a Working Australians Tax Offset of up to $250 per year from the 2027–28 income year, benefiting more than 13 million workers. It will also cut the 16 per cent tax rate on income between $18,201 and $45,000 to 15 per cent from 1 July 2026, and then to 14 per cent from 1 July 2027. A new $1,000 instant work-related tax deduction will also be introduced from 2026–27.  

Fuel and energy security are major themes. In response to the global oil shock and disruption in the Middle East, the government has announced a $14.8 billion fuel resilience package, including extra fuel reserves, fuel and fertiliser security measures, and a temporary reduction in fuel excise. It will also introduce a 20 per cent domestic gas reservation scheme from 1 July 2027, requiring LNG producers to reserve part of their export volume for Australian users.  

Housing is one of the biggest reform areas. The government will limit negative gearing to new builds from 1 July 2027. Existing investment properties held before budget night will keep their current arrangements. The 50 per cent capital gains tax discount will also be replaced by an inflation-based discount, with a minimum 30 per cent tax on gains from 1 July 2027. The government says these changes are intended to shift support away from speculation in existing housing and toward new supply.  

First home buyers are clear winners. The government estimates that the negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms will help around 75,000 Australians into home ownership over the decade. It will also spend $2 billion on local infrastructure such as roads, power, water and sewerage to support up to 65,000 new homes.  

The NDIS faces major reform. The government says it wants to return the scheme to its original purpose of supporting people with permanent and significant disability. Reforms include clearer eligibility rules, standardised functional assessments, tighter reassessment criteria, stronger anti-fraud measures, and more oversight of providers. These changes are expected to save $37.8 billion over four years, while the government will also provide $2 billion for the new Thriving Kids program.  

Health and aged care receive significant funding. The budget includes $3.7 billion for aged care, including support for up to 5,000 new aged care beds a year and more Support at Home packages. Public hospitals receive an additional $25 billion, and $1.8 billion is allocated to make Medicare Urgent Care Clinics a permanent part of the health system.  

Business and productivity are another major focus. The government will make the $20,000 instant asset write-off permanent, reintroduce loss carry-back rules, expand venture capital incentives, reduce regulatory burden, invest in Digital ID, and provide up to $70 million in AI Accelerator grants. The government claims its productivity reforms could reduce regulatory costs by $10.2 billion a year and boost long-run GDP by around $13 billion a year.  

The budget position remains under pressure. The deficit is forecast at $31.5 billion, slightly better than expected, but the budget is not expected to return to balance until 2034–35. Gross debt is still forecast to exceed $1 trillion.  

My overall reading is that this budget is not just about short-term relief. It is a deliberate attempt to rebalance the tax system toward wage earners and first home buyers, while putting more pressure on property investors, discretionary trusts, parts of the NDIS system, and some older Australians with private health insurance. The political message is clear: Labor wants to present itself as helping workers and home buyers while also claiming fiscal discipline.