In Australia, “I reckon” is a very natural way to say “I think”, “I’d say” or sometimes “I guess”. It usually has nothing to do with calculation. Cambridge labels this sense of reckon as informal and defines it as meaning to think or believe. ABC has also listed “I reckon” among everyday Australian expressions that can puzzle newly arrived migrants.
A: Do you reckon it’ll rain this afternoon?
B: I reckon so. Those clouds look pretty dark.
Compared with “I think”, reckon sounds more conversational and often carries the feel of a quick personal judgement rather than a formal conclusion. Chinese speakers can easily make it sound too serious if they mentally translate reckon only as “calculate” or “estimate”.
The same sense is also natural in British English. It exists in American English too, but dictionaries more often mark the “think or suppose” sense as regional or dialectal there. In everyday Australian conversation, though, “I reckon…” is entirely ordinary. In formal writing, “I think” or a more precise statement is usually the safer choice.
Sources
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/reckon
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-09-17/im-stuffed-migrants-boggled-by-aussie-slang/1433256
https://www.abc.net.au/education/voice-of-the-people-the-aussie-accent-whaddya-reckon-mate-video/13745956
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