婴儿潮与经济可持续性/Baby Boom and Economic Sustainability

婴儿潮是指1946年到1964年之间出生的人，这些人仍然占相当大的人口比例，但是正在逐渐退出历史，而且这个衰竭的速度会很快，因为当时来的很快，比较集中，去天堂的路上也会比较集中。并不是他们一路都想占便宜，而是这个制度体系运行的节拍正好有利于他们。目前的经济模式根本就无法持续下去，西方国家普遍面临这个问题。这并不是什么人口红利，每个人既是生产者，也是消费者，人多的时候红利多，那人少的时候负担也少。我一直不喜欢人口红利这个词，我把这个叫做代际剥削。现在的经济模式传到下一代传不动了，玩不转了。

澳洲基本上两类人，一个是有房的，一个是没房的。有房的往往都有多套房，有一套房的反而变成另类了。澳洲的政策就是长期的鼓励大家投资房产。 有一个所谓的负扣税政策，就是第二套以上的房子的各种持有成本都可以减税。靠这种政策去驱动经济发展，最后就导致两极分化。中国也有类似的问题。实际房屋的保有量已经足够现有人口的使用了，但是很多人仍然买不起房。很多驱动经济发展的模式走到今天已经走到头了，到绝路了。

The term “baby boomers” refers to people born between 1946 and 1964. They still account for a significant portion of the population but are gradually exiting the stage of history—and this decline will be rapid because their arrival was sudden and concentrated, and so will be their departure to heaven. It’s not that they always tried to gain advantages; rather, the rhythm of the institutional system just happened to benefit them. The current economic model is fundamentally unsustainable, and Western countries are facing this issue broadly. This is not a so-called demographic dividend—each person is both a producer and a consumer. If having more people brings more dividends, then having fewer people should mean a lighter burden. I’ve never liked the term “demographic dividend”; I call it intergenerational exploitation. The current economic model can’t be passed on to the next generation—it simply won’t work anymore.

Australia basically has two types of people: those who own property and those who don’t. Property owners often own multiple properties, and those with only one house have become the exception. Australian policy has long encouraged investment in real estate. There’s a so-called negative gearing policy, meaning that the holding costs of second and subsequent properties can be tax-deductible. Relying on such policies to drive economic growth ultimately leads to polarization. China faces similar issues. The actual stock of housing is already sufficient for the current population, but many people still can’t afford a home. Many of the economic models that once drove growth have now reached a dead end.