China
China and the United States published reciprocal tariff-reduction lists on 28 September, each covering about US$30 billion in imports, or roughly US$60 billion in total. China's list includes corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and meals, fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics and medical devices; soybeans are not included. The US list covers Chinese-made small household appliances, tableware, blankets and bed linen, toys, fireworks, artificial flowers, seasonal decorations and child car seats, among other goods.
China's commerce ministry said the current trade truce would be extended for two months, to 10 January 2027. The two governments also agreed to establish an agricultural co-operation working group and plan to hold its first meeting before the end of 2026. The published documents identify the covered products, but the implementation date for the tariff changes has not yet been specified.
Australia
The Australian Government released the 2025–26 Final Budget Outcome on 28 September. The underlying cash deficit was A$22.3 billion, or 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product. This was A$6 billion smaller than the A$28.3 billion estimate for 2025–26 contained in the 2026–27 Budget.
Government payments were A$1.4 billion below the Budget estimate, while tax receipts were A$4.6 billion higher. Treasury attributed the revenue difference mainly to superannuation fund and investment income. Commonwealth gross debt was A$10.6 billion below the Budget estimate, at 33.2 per cent of GDP. These figures replace the Budget estimates as the final fiscal outcome for 2025–26.
United States
Reuters reported on 28 September that analysis by data company Allium found more than US$220 million had been traded through early September in Polymarket contracts linked to equities, across about 31,000 markets. Nearly 60 per cent of the activity concerned movements in individual share prices. Polymarket's US platform does not offer single-stock contracts; the relevant trading occurred on its platform for non-US users. The US-based platform Kalshi also does not offer contracts on individual share-price movements, although it has markets tied to some corporate performance indicators.
US law generally treats contracts linked to a single stock as security-based swaps regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such products are mostly restricted to eligible professional participants. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, meanwhile, oversees event-contract markets. In June, the SEC and CFTC jointly sought public comment on the definitions of swaps, security-based swaps and mixed swaps, as well as regulatory jurisdiction over novel products. Neither agency has issued a final rule specifically addressing equity-linked prediction contracts. The SEC declined to comment for the Reuters report, while the CFTC did not respond to a request for comment.
Editorial framework: This briefing uses Sustenesis as an editorial framework for selecting facts, organising relationships and structuring information, with attention to differences and constraints in rules, responsibilities, resources, risks and social relations. Sustenesis functions here as a method of organisation rather than a position or commentary; the body remains limited to verifiable facts.
Sources
Reuters — China, US agree tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods including agriculture, household items
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-says-us-trade-truce-extension-creates-space-advance-talks-2026-09-28/
Reuters — China to cut tariffs on US farm goods, but list excludes soybeans
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-cut-tariffs-us-farm-goods-soybeans-excluded-2026-09-28/
The White House — China Import Product List
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/China-Import-List.pdf
The White House — US Public List
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/US-Public-List.pdf
Australian Treasury Ministers — Final Budget Outcome 2025–26
https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/final-budget-outcome-2025-26
Reuters — Australia posts budget deficit of $15.7 billion for 2025/26 financial year
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-posts-budget-deficit-157-billion-202526-financial-year-2026-09-28/
Reuters — Prediction markets' push into US stocks raises regulatory alarm bells
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/prediction-markets-push-into-us-stocks-raises-regulatory-alarm-bells-2026-09-28/
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — SEC, CFTC Seek Public Comment to Further Clarify and Harmonize Derivatives Product Definitions
https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-57-sec-cftc-seek-public-comment-further-clarify-harmonize-derivatives-product-definitions
Discover more from Geoffrey Chen
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.