{"id":22574,"date":"2026-10-11T09:12:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T22:12:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/base-rates-anchor-judgment-before-new-evidence\/"},"modified":"2026-10-11T09:12:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T22:12:32","slug":"base-rates-anchor-judgment-before-new-evidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/base-rates-anchor-judgment-before-new-evidence\/","title":{"rendered":"\u57fa\u51c6\u7387\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u9192\u76ee\u7684\u7ebf\u7d22\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u5168\u90e8\u6982\u7387\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/base-rates-anchor-judgment-before-new-evidence\/9dd0ee7de9fa9721647d8c58.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u57fa\u51c6\u7387\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u9192\u76ee\u7684\u7ebf\u7d22\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u5168\u90e8\u6982\u7387\uff1f\" 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AI \u5206\u7c7b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2a\u6848\u5e38\u6bd4\u603b\u4f53\u66f4\u751f\u52a8\u3002\u597d\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u201c\u76f8\u4fe1\u6570\u636e\u201d\u548c\u201c\u76f8\u4fe1\u773c\u524d\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e8c\u9009\u4e00\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5148\u95ee\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u539f\u672c\u591a\u5e38\u89c1\uff1f\u773c\u524d\u8bc1\u636e\u53c8\u628a\u5b83\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.itl.nist.gov\/div898\/handbook\/apr\/section2\/apr1a.htm\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.itl.nist.gov\/div898\/handbook\/apr\/section2\/apr1a.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"roadly-philosophy-promotion\">\n<hr>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/app\/id6815896028\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/geoffreychen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/roadly-philosophy-app-icon-1.jpg?resize=72%2C72&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Roadly Philosophy\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" style=\"display:block;width:72px;height:72px;border-radius:16px;\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Roadly Philosophy<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60f3\u6362\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u63a5\u89e6\u54f2\u5b66\uff1f\u8bd5\u8bd5\u6211\u5f00\u53d1\u7684 iPhone \u54f2\u5b66\u6e38\u620f Roadly Philosophy\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/app\/id6815896028\" aria-label=\"\u5728 App Store \u4e0b\u8f7d: Roadly Philosophy\" style=\"display:inline-block;padding:12px 0;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/geoffreychen.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/roadly-app-store-badge-zh-cn-hires.png?resize=150%2C50&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u5728 App Store \u4e0b\u8f7d\" width=\"150\" height=\"50\" style=\"display:block;width:150px;height:50px;max-width:100%;border:0;\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Base rates show how common an outcome was before new evidence arrived; sound judgement combines them with case-specific clues rather than ignoring either.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u57fa\u51c6\u7387\u8bf4\u660e\u67d0\u7c7b\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u65b0\u8bc1\u636e\u51fa\u73b0\u524d\u539f\u672c\u6709\u591a\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u5224\u65ad\u5e94\u8ba9\u4e2a\u6848\u7ebf\u7d22\u4e0e\u603b\u4f53\u5206\u5e03\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u8fa8\u522b\u65b0\u8bc1\u636e\u7a76\u7adf\u80fd\u628a\u539f\u6709\u6982\u7387\u6539\u53d8\u591a\u5c11\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787294141],"tags":[787301396,787301398,787301397,787301399],"class_list":["post-22574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-philosophical-concepts","tag-base-rates","tag-probabilistic-reasoning","tag-base-rates-zh","tag-probabilistic-reasoning-zh","","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Base Rates: Why Can\u2019t One Striking Clue Determine the Whole 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