{"id":20864,"date":"2026-10-03T11:02:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T01:02:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-more-likely-than-not\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T11:02:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T01:02:57","slug":"why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-more-likely-than-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-more-likely-than-not\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ea\u898123\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-more-likely-than-not\/bcf014f855ed490a1b958f03.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ea\u898123\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff1f\" 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href=\"https:\/\/www.chiefscientist.gov.au\/2011\/05\/the-birthday-problem\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.chiefscientist.gov.au\/2011\/05\/the-birthday-problem<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amstat.org\/asa\/files\/pdfs\/stew\/HappyBirthdaytoTwo.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.amstat.org\/asa\/files\/pdfs\/stew\/HappyBirthdaytoTwo.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"With 23 people, a shared birthday has about a 50.7% probability because the group contains 253 possible pairs, far more comparisons than 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