![\"\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u5f53\u521d\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u9519\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/does-a-bad-outcome-prove-the-decision-was-wrong\/728b6bdd982fe0f06cc17d9b.jpg?w=1140&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u524d\u4f5c\u51fa\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u7528\u7ed3\u679c\u5012\u63a8\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u663e\u793a\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f60\u636e\u6b64\u5b89\u6392\u6237\u5916\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u5374\u9047\u5230\u66b4\u96e8\u3002\u6d3b\u52a8\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4e5f\u503c\u5f97\u590d\u76d8\uff1b\u4f46\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u81ea\u52a8\u8bf4\u660e\u4f60\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u89c4\u8303\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u901a\u5e38\u628a\u9009\u62e9\u770b\u6210\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u3002\u671f\u671b\u6548\u7528\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u5f20\u6bd4\u8f83\u5404\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4fdd\u8bc1\u9009\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ea7\u751f\u6700\u597d\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5f53\u7136\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\uff1a\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u603b\u80fd\u6362\u7b97\u6210\u540c\u4e00\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5b83\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u533a\u522b\u2014\u2014\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e8b\u524d\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u597d\u574f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e8b\u540e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f2f\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u65af\u4e0e\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u5185\u683c\u5c14\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u9053\u5fb7\u8fd0\u6c14\u201d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u53c8\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u5224\u65ad\u5f88\u96be\u5b8c\u5168\u6392\u9664\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\u758f\u5ffd\u662f\u5426\u6070\u597d\u9020\u6210\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3001\u8865\u6551\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6cd5\u5f8b\u540e\u679c\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u5355\u72ec\u91cd\u5199\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff1a\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\u5e94\u89e6\u53d1\u4e24\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u5148\u95ee\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u5426\u9057\u6f0f\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u8bef\u4f30\u6982\u7387\u6216\u8f7b\u89c6\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff1b\u518d\u95ee\u73b0\u5728\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u627f\u62c5\u548c\u4fee\u590d\u3002\u82e5\u524d\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u9057\u61be\u4ecd\u7136\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u5fc5\u628a\u9057\u61be\u4f2a\u88c5\u6210\u201c\u65e9\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u77e5\u9053\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
https:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/decision-theory\/<\/a> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Judge a decision by the evidence, probabilities and costs available at the time; a bad outcome prompts review but does not alone prove irrationality.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u51b3\u5b9a\u5fc5\u987b\u4f9d\u636e\u5f53\u65f6\u53ef\u5f97\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u6982\u7387\u548c\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6765\u5224\u65ad\uff1b\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\u503c\u5f97\u91cd\u65b0\u68c0\u9a8c\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u4e3b\u52a8\u627f\u62c5\u5e76\u4fee\u590d\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u5355\u72ec\u8bc1\u660e\u539f\u5148\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787294141],"tags":[787300989,787297813,787297815,787300990],"class_list":["post-20654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-philosophical-concepts","tag-decision-theory","tag-moral-luck-zh","tag-moral-luck","tag-decision-theory-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Does a Bad Outcome Prove the Decision Was Wrong?","zh_CN":"\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u5f53\u521d\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u9519\u4e86\u5417\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-5n8","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
https:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/moral-luck\/<\/a><\/p>\n