{"id":20283,"date":"2026-09-22T10:25:47","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T00:25:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-a-hypothesis-guides-us-toward-supporting-evidence\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T10:25:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T00:25:47","slug":"why-a-hypothesis-guides-us-toward-supporting-evidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-a-hypothesis-guides-us-toward-supporting-evidence\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5148\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u731c\u60f3\u540e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u53ea\u627e\u652f\u6301\u5b83\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-a-hypothesis-guides-us-toward-supporting-evidence\/8f1e3410be88ea84ed6d1c01.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u5148\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u731c\u60f3\u540e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u53ea\u627e\u652f\u6301\u5b83\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u65e6\u5f62\u6210\u731c\u60f3\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u53bb\u95ee\u201c\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7b26\u5408\u5b83\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u4ec0\u4e48\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u8bc1\u660e\u5b83\u9519\u201d\u3002Wason \u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u89c4\u5219\u53d1\u73b0\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b26\u5408\u672a\u77e5\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u6570\u5217\u201c2\u30014\u30016\u201d\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u62a5\u65b0\u6570\u5217\u6765\u731c\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5148\u60f3\u5230\u201c\u6bcf\u6b21\u52a0\u4e8c\u201d\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u8bd5\u201c8\u300110\u300112\u201d\uff1b\u5f97\u5230\u80af\u5b9a\u56de\u7b54\u540e\u66f4\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u771f\u6b63\u89c4\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u201c\u9012\u589e\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u636e\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u68c0\u9a8c\u6ca1\u6709\u533a\u5206\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u201c\u6bcf\u6b21\u52a0\u4e8c\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4efb\u610f\u9012\u589e\u201d\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u80af\u5b9a\u56de\u7b54\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f5c\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u50cf\u201c6\u30015\u30014\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u4e24\u4e2a\u731c\u60f3\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7c7b\u503e\u5411\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u7814\u7a76\u8fb9\u754c\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4eba\u5e76\u975e\u603b\u5728\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u4fdd\u62a4\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1b\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u53ea\u662f\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u5148\u627e\u7b26\u5408\u76ee\u6807\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u5411\u68c0\u9a8c\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u73af\u5883\u91cc\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7a00\u5c11\u6216\u641c\u7d22\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u3002\u504f\u5dee\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8bef\u5f53\u6210\u4e25\u683c\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3b\u52a8\u8bbe\u8ba1\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6539\u5584\u5224\u65ad\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5f3a\u8feb\u81ea\u5df1\u8bfb\u4e00\u6761\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5148\u5199\u4e0b\uff1a\u82e5\u731c\u60f3\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u6211\u5e94\u8be5\u770b\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5e38\u662f\u80fd\u8ba9\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/17470216008416717\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/17470216008416717<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1037\/0033-295X.94.2.211\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1037\/0033-295X.94.2.211<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Once a hypothesis forms, people often test matching cases rather than seek disconfirming evidence. This can be efficient, but may preserve a mistaken explanation.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u5f62\u6210\u731c\u60f3\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u4e3b\u52a8\u68c0\u9a8c\u7b26\u5408\u5b83\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5374\u8f83\u5c11\u5bfb\u627e\u80fd\u63a8\u7ffb\u5b83\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff1b\u8fd9\u79cd\u786e\u8ba4\u5f0f\u641c\u7d22\u6709\u65f6\u9ad8\u6548\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u9519\u8bef\u89e3\u91ca\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u6d3b\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296909],"tags":[787300629,787300630,787300631,787300632],"class_list":["post-20283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-everyday-psychology","tag-confirmation-bias","tag-confirmation-bias-zh","tag-hypothesis-testing","tag-hypothesis-testing-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Why Do We Seek Supporting Evidence Once We Have a Hypothesis?","zh_CN":"\u5148\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u731c\u60f3\u540e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u53ea\u627e\u652f\u6301\u5b83\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-5h9","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20283\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}