{"id":20182,"date":"2026-09-21T02:59:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T16:59:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-known-odds-can-feel-safer-than-unknown-odds\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T02:59:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T16:59:20","slug":"why-known-odds-can-feel-safer-than-unknown-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-known-odds-can-feel-safer-than-unknown-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u5e38\u6bd4\u672a\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u8ba9\u4eba\u5b89\u5fc3\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-known-odds-can-feel-safer-than-unknown-odds\/446e71b20208962cfb13ea10.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u5e38\u6bd4\u672a\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u8ba9\u4eba\u5b89\u5fc3\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u60f3\u8c61\u9762\u524d\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u7f50\u5b50\uff0c\u5404\u88c5100\u4e2a\u7ea2\u7403\u6216\u9ed1\u7403\u3002\u7532\u7f50\u660e\u786e\u662f50\u7ea2\u300150\u9ed1\uff1b\u4e59\u7f50\u4e5f\u6709100\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4e24\u79cd\u989c\u8272\u5404\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u82e5\u62bd\u4e2d\u7ea2\u7403\u5c31\u83b7\u5956\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u9009\u7532\u7f50\u3002\u628a\u4e2d\u5956\u989c\u8272\u6539\u6210\u9ed1\u7403\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4ecd\u9009\u7532\u7f50\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u662f\u5224\u65ad\u4e59\u7f50\u54ea\u79cd\u989c\u8272\u66f4\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u56de\u907f\u201c\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ed9\u6982\u7387\u201d\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7c7b\u9009\u62e9\u6765\u81ea\u827e\u5c14\u65af\u4f2f\u683c1961\u5e74\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6a21\u7cca\u538c\u6076\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u6a21\u7cca\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff1a\u7532\u7f50\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4ecd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u6982\u7387\u5df2\u77e5\uff1b\u4e59\u7f50\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7ed3\u679c\u672a\u77e5\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u672a\u77e5\u3002\u4eba\u5728\u540e\u8005\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u62c5\u5fc3\u9057\u6f0f\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u6000\u7591\u8bbe\u7f6e\u8005\u5360\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u6216\u5bf9\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u5f62\u8d4b\u4e88\u8f83\u5927\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u7a33\u5b9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u504f\u597d\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u673a\u5236\u538b\u7f29\u6210\u5355\u4e00\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u503e\u5411\u6709\u65f6\u6709\u7528\u3002\u82e5\u8d44\u6599\u4e0d\u8db3\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6a21\u578b\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u8c28\u614e\u80fd\u9632\u6b62\u628a\u731c\u6d4b\u4f2a\u88c5\u6210\u7cbe\u786e\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4eba\u673a\u68b0\u504f\u7231\u201c\u6709\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6570\u5b57\u6765\u81ea\u5f88\u5c0f\u6216\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6837\u672c\u3002\u6982\u7387\u5199\u5f97\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u8bc1\u636e\u66f4\u597d\uff1b\u672a\u77e5\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e00\u5b9a\u66f4\u5371\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u201c\u719f\u6089\u4f46\u6536\u76ca\u4e00\u822c\u201d\u548c\u201c\u964c\u751f\u4f46\u8d44\u6599\u4e0d\u8db3\u201d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u95ee\uff1a\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u6240\u7528\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1f\u8865\u5145\u4fe1\u606f\u80fd\u5426\u7f29\u5c0f\u8303\u56f4\uff1f\u82e5\u4e0d\u80fd\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u5f62\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u627f\u53d7\uff1f\u6a21\u7cca\u538c\u6076\u662f\u7fa4\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4eba\u683c\uff1b\u6536\u76ca\u6216\u635f\u5931\u3001\u719f\u6089\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u95ee\u9898\u8868\u8ff0\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u90fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/1884324\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/1884324<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1257\/jel.30.2.325\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1257\/jel.30.2.325<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"People often prefer known probabilities to unclear ones. 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