{"id":19681,"date":"2026-09-09T15:58:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T05:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-a-near-miss-can-feel-worse-than-missing-by-far\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T15:58:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T05:58:09","slug":"why-a-near-miss-can-feel-worse-than-missing-by-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-a-near-miss-can-feel-worse-than-missing-by-far\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u65f6\u6bd4\u5dee\u5f97\u5f88\u8fdc\u66f4\u96be\u53d7\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-a-near-miss-can-feel-worse-than-missing-by-far\/b330ec6e9179e808253552db.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u65f6\u6bd4\u5dee\u5f97\u5f88\u8fdc\u66f4\u96be\u53d7\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u8d76\u706b\u8f66\u8fdf\u5230\u4e00\u5206\u949f\uff0c\u5e38\u6bd4\u8fdf\u5230\u4e00\u5c0f\u65f6\u66f4\u61ca\u607c\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u540c\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u6ca1\u8d76\u4e0a\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u8ba9\u201c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u65e9\u4e00\u70b9\u51fa\u95e8\u201d\u663e\u5f97\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u66ff\u4ee3\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u601d\u7ef4\uff1b\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5411\u4e0a\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u65f6\uff0c\u9057\u61be\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7ecf\u5178\u7814\u7a76\u8ba9\u4eba\u89c2\u770b\u5965\u8fd0\u5956\u724c\u5f97\u4e3b\u9886\u5956\u540e\u7684\u5f71\u50cf\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u5e73\u5747\u5224\u65ad\u94f6\u724c\u5f97\u4e3b\u4e0d\u5982\u94dc\u724c\u5f97\u4e3b\u5feb\u4e50\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\uff1a\u94f6\u724c\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u5230\u201c\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u5c31\u662f\u91d1\u724c\u201d\uff0c\u94dc\u724c\u5219\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u5230\u201c\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u6ca1\u6709\u5956\u724c\u201d\u30022021\u5e74\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6027\u91cd\u590d\u7814\u7a76\u5f97\u5230\u76f8\u4f3c\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u7fa4\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u548c\u53ef\u89c1\u8868\u60c5\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u6bcf\u4f4d\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u7684\u5185\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u94f6\u724c\u672c\u8eab\u8f83\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u601d\u7ef4\u5e76\u975e\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u628a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6307\u5411\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u73af\u8282\uff1a\u82e5\u786e\u5b9e\u56e0\u4e3a\u665a\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u51fa\u95e8\u800c\u9519\u8fc7\u706b\u8f66\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u63d0\u524d\u51fa\u53d1\u4fbf\u6709\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u201c\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u8c61\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u5c40\u201d\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e2a\u7ed3\u5c40\u539f\u672c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u5b9a\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u5929\u6c14\u3001\u4fe1\u53f7\u6545\u969c\u6216\u5076\u7136\u5ef6\u8bef\u4e5f\u80fd\u5236\u9020\u8fd1\u5931\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd1\u5931\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u523a\u75db\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u635f\u5931\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66ff\u4ee3\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u8fd1\u3001\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u9057\u61be\u6307\u51fa\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5374\u8981\u53e6\u7528\u8bc1\u636e\u5224\u65ad\u539f\u56e0\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\uff1b\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u5927\u8111\u751f\u6210\u5f97\u6700\u6d41\u7545\u7684\u201c\u5982\u679c\u201d\uff0c\u4f1a\u88ab\u8bef\u5f53\u6210\u4e8b\u60c5\u672c\u6765\u5e94\u6709\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.anderson.ucla.edu\/faculty\/keith.chen\/negot.%20papers\/MedvecMadeyGilovich_ContFactSatisf95.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">\u70b9\u51fb\u4ee5\u8bbf\u95ee MedvecMadeyGilovich_ContFactSatisf95.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33166162\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33166162\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"A near miss makes a better outcome easy to imagine, intensifying regret. Counterfactual thought can guide learning, but does not by itself prove a bad decision.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u6210\u529f\u4f1a\u8ba9\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u5f97\u89e6\u624b\u53ef\u53ca\uff0c\u5411\u4e0a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u800c\u653e\u5927\u9057\u61be\u3002\u5b83\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u627e\u5230\u53ef\u6539\u53d8\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u5355\u72ec\u8bc1\u660e\u51b3\u5b9a\u5931\u8bef\uff1b\u4ecd\u987b\u53e6\u7528\u8bc1\u636e\u5224\u65ad\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u6982\u7387\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296909],"tags":[787299970,787299973,787299972,787299971],"class_list":["post-19681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-everyday-psychology","tag-counterfactual-thinking","tag-regret-zh","tag-regret","tag-counterfactual-thinking-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Why Can a Near Miss Feel Worse Than Missing by Far?","zh_CN":"\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u65f6\u6bd4\u5dee\u5f97\u5f88\u8fdc\u66f4\u96be\u53d7\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-57r","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19681\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}