{"id":19507,"date":"2026-09-08T16:04:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T06:04:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-a-good-outcome-can-make-a-poor-decision-look-wise\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T16:04:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T06:04:58","slug":"why-a-good-outcome-can-make-a-poor-decision-look-wise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-a-good-outcome-can-make-a-poor-decision-look-wise\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Doesn’t a Good Outcome Necessarily Mean a Wise Decision?"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

\"\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u51b3\u5b9a\u672a\u5fc5\u82f1\u660e\uff1f\"<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u5e26\u6765\u597d\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bb9\u6613\u79f0\u5b83\u82f1\u660e\uff1b\u540c\u6837\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u82e5\u7ed3\u5c40\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u53c8\u4f1a\u663e\u5f97\u8349\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u53eb\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u7ed3\u5c40\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba9\u7ed3\u679c\u8fc7\u591a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5bf9\u539f\u5148\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

Baron \u4e0e Hershey 1988\u5e74\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8ba9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u8bc4\u4ef7\u533b\u7597\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u53ea\u6539\u53d8\u624b\u672f\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u529f\u8fd8\u662f\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4fbf\u968f\u7ed3\u679c\u79fb\u52a8\u30022023\u5e74\u7684\u9884\u6ce8\u518c\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u590d\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u4e0e\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u4e66\u9762\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u5e73\u5747\u5224\u65ad\u4f1a\u53d7\u7ed3\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u65ad\u8a00\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u6b21\u8bc4\u4ef7\u90fd\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u975e\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u82e5\u8fde\u7eed\u5931\u8d25\u66b4\u9732\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u9057\u6f0f\u3001\u6267\u884c\u95ee\u9898\u6216\u539f\u5148\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u504f\u5dee\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u542b\u6709\u8fd0\u6c14\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u628a\u5355\u6b21\u7ed3\u5c40\u5f53\u6210\u5f53\u65f6\u63a8\u7406\u597d\u574f\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u79f0\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u516b\u6210\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u6ca1\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5355\u51ed\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u5224\u5b9a\u9884\u62a5\u5f88\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u5dee\u4e0e\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u76f8\u90bb\u4f46\u4e0d\u540c\uff1a\u540e\u8005\u8ba9\u8fc7\u53bb\u663e\u5f97\u201c\u65e9\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u201d\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u8ba9\u597d\u574f\u7ed3\u5c40\u6539\u53d8\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u3002\u66f4\u7a33\u59a5\u7684\u590d\u76d8\uff0c\u662f\u5148\u906e\u4f4f\u7ed3\u5c40\uff0c\u95ee\u5f53\u65f6\u638c\u63e1\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u6982\u7387\u600e\u6837\u3001\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u5408\u7406\u66ff\u4ee3\uff1b\u518d\u6253\u5f00\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u5b83\u65b0\u589e\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u65e2\u4e0d\u5956\u8d4f\u4fa5\u5e78\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u628a\u6240\u6709\u574f\u8fd0\u6c14\u90fd\u7b97\u6210\u65e0\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n

https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/3367280\/<\/a>
https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC12372742\/<\/a><\/p>\n

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