{"id":19380,"date":"2026-09-07T02:18:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-06T16:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-two-rare-events-can-seem-related\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T02:18:51","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T16:18:51","slug":"why-two-rare-events-can-seem-related","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-two-rare-events-can-seem-related\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e24\u4ef6\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u4e8b\u4e00\u8d77\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u5173\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-two-rare-events-can-seem-related\/9462f435a056ac7a019d3cb9.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u4e24\u4ef6\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u4e8b\u4e00\u8d77\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u5173\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u78b0\u5de7\u4e00\u8d77\u51fa\u73b0\u51e0\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u8054\u7cfb\uff1b\u82e5\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u672c\u6765\u90fd\u5c11\u89c1\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u611f\u89c9\u5c24\u5176\u5f3a\u3002\u8fd9\u53eb\u9519\u89c9\u76f8\u5173\uff1a\u5b9e\u9645\u6ca1\u6709\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u6216\u76f8\u5173\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5f88\u5f31\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u5374\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c49\u5bc6\u5c14\u987f\u548c\u5409\u798f\u5fb71976\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5411\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e24\u4e2a\u865a\u6784\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u8f83\u5927\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u8f83\u5c0f\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u9762\u4e0e\u8d1f\u9762\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u8d1f\u9762\u884c\u4e3a\u672c\u6765\u8f83\u5c11\u3002\u5c0f\u7fa4\u4f53\u6210\u5458\u505a\u51fa\u8d1f\u9762\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u5c11\u89c1\u7fa4\u4f53\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5c11\u89c1\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f15\u8d77\u6ce8\u610f\u5e76\u7559\u5728\u8bb0\u5fc6\u91cc\u3002\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u540e\u6765\u4fbf\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u8f83\u5c0f\u7fa4\u4f53\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5f97\u66f4\u8d1f\u9762\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6750\u6599\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5e76\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u4e0e\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\u5f3a\u8c03\u6211\u4eec\u504f\u5411\u5bfb\u627e\u7b26\u5408\u65e2\u6709\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff1b\u9519\u89c9\u76f8\u5173\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u6210\u89c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u663e\u773c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5171\u540c\u51fa\u73b0\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u65e9\u4e8e\u201c\u76f8\u5173\u662f\u5426\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9519\u8bef\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u76f8\u5173\u672c\u8eab\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u60c5\u5883\u90fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u540c\u6837\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u4efb\u52a1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u5df2\u6709\u671f\u5f85\u548c\u8bb0\u5fc6\u65b9\u5f0f\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u6821\u6b63\u529e\u6cd5\u4e0d\u662f\u5f3a\u8feb\u81ea\u5df1\u5ffd\u7565\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8865\u9f50\u5206\u6bcd\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u67e5\u770b\u4e24\u7c7b\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u4e0e\u5c11\u89c1\u884c\u4e3a\u5404\u5360\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u6570\u90a3\u51e0\u4e2a\u6700\u96be\u5fd8\u7684\u5171\u540c\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u9192\u76ee\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u662f\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0022103176800066\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0022103176800066<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC7497493\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC7497493\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Illusory correlation can make two unrelated events seem linked when both are rare and salient. 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