{"id":19235,"date":"2026-09-05T10:09:55","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T00:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-likely\/"},"modified":"2026-09-05T10:09:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T00:09:55","slug":"why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e4823\u4e2a\u4eba\u91cc\uff0c\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-23-people-make-a-shared-birthday-likely\/6a0ca084642184c890596ccb.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e4823\u4e2a\u4eba\u91cc\uff0c\u751f\u65e5\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff1f\" 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href=\"https:\/\/mathworld.wolfram.com\/BirthdayProblem.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/mathworld.wolfram.com\/BirthdayProblem.html<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stat.berkeley.edu\/~aldous\/Top_Ten\/talk.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.stat.berkeley.edu\/~aldous\/Top_Ten\/talk.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"With 23 people, a shared birthday is already more likely than not because the number of possible pairs grows much faster than intuition 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