{"id":19006,"date":"2026-09-02T22:04:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T12:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-we-overestimate-how-many-people-agree-with-us\/"},"modified":"2026-09-02T22:04:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T12:04:17","slug":"why-we-overestimate-how-many-people-agree-with-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-we-overestimate-how-many-people-agree-with-us\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u8d5e\u540c\u81ea\u5df1\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-we-overestimate-how-many-people-agree-with-us\/31541fca3df0d4e4fc2883ff.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u8d5e\u540c\u81ea\u5df1\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ee5\u540e\u7ee7\u7eed\u7ebf\u4e0a\u5f00\u4f1a\u8fd8\u662f\u56de\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u3002\u9009\u62e9\u7ebf\u4e0a\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u4f30\u8ba1\u66f4\u591a\u540c\u4e8b\u4e5f\u4f1a\u9009\u7ebf\u4e0a\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u5230\u573a\u8005\u5219\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5230\u573a\u65b9\u6848\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u62ac\u9ad8\u4e86\u5bf9\u5176\u666e\u904d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u201d\u53eb\u865a\u5047\u5171\u8bc6\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u81ea\u604b\u5f0f\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u548c\u6211\u4e00\u6837\u201d\u3002\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u7531\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u63d0\u53d6\uff0c\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u4eba\u53c8\u5e38\u4e0e\u81ea\u5df1\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u8fd9\u4efd\u72ed\u7a84\u6837\u672c\u4f1a\u88ab\u5f53\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u5408\u7406\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u89c9\u5f97\u522b\u4eba\u9762\u5bf9\u540c\u6837\u6761\u4ef6\u4e5f\u5e94\u5982\u6b64\u30021985 \u5e74\u4e00\u9879\u6c47\u603b 115 \u4e2a\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u5143\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\u603b\u4f53\u6548\u5e94\u663e\u8457\u3001\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7b49\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0d\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u5dee\u5f02\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u9898\u76ee\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u5148\u95ee\u9009\u62e9\u8fd8\u662f\u5148\u4f30\u6bd4\u4f8b\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5e38\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff1a\u7ecf\u5178\u5b9a\u4e49\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u9009\u62e9\u8005\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u9009\u9879\u666e\u904d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u7edd\u5bf9\u9ad8\u4f30\u771f\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u67d0\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u4f4e\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9635\u8425\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6bd4\u53e6\u4e00\u9635\u8425\u4f30\u5f97\u9ad8\u3002\u56e0\u800c\uff0c\u7ea0\u6b63\u5b83\u4e0d\u9760\u63d0\u9192\u81ea\u5df1\u201c\u6211\u4e00\u5b9a\u9519\u4e86\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u628a\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5f53\u4f5c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u4e3b\u52a8\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0d\u540c\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u8bf4\u660e\u53c2\u8003\u4eba\u7fa4\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u8c01\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0022-1031(77)90049-X\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0022-1031(77)90049-X<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0022-1031(85)90020-4\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0022-1031(85)90020-4<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"The false-consensus effect means our own choice can inflate estimates of its popularity. 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