{"id":17901,"date":"2026-08-22T19:14:03","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T09:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/counterfactuals-test-what-could-have-changed\/"},"modified":"2026-08-22T19:14:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T09:14:03","slug":"counterfactuals-test-what-could-have-changed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/counterfactuals-test-what-could-have-changed\/","title":{"rendered":"\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u65f6\u201d\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5e7b\u60f3\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/counterfactuals-test-what-could-have-changed\/aad846548d189830122b670d.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u65f6\u201d\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5e7b\u60f3\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u82e5\u67d0\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u610f\u7f16\u9020\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u4eba\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53d7\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u56e0\u8d44\u6599\u8fdf\u5230\u800c\u63a8\u8fdf\u3002\u8981\u5224\u65ad\u8fdf\u5230\u662f\u5426\u662f\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u60f3\u8c61\u201c\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u53d8\u4e86\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u5c3d\u91cf\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u4ed6\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u53ea\u6bd4\u8f83\u8d44\u6599\u51c6\u65f6\u9001\u8fbe\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u82e5\u4f1a\u8bae\u4ecd\u4f1a\u56e0\u505c\u7535\u63a8\u8fdf\uff0c\u539f\u5148\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5224\u65ad\u5c31\u8981\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u540c\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u9762\u5411\u5c1a\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u91cd\u6784\u5df2\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u540e\u6094\uff1b\u540e\u6094\u5e26\u6709\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u53ea\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u5728\u4e8e\u628a\u201c\u672c\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u600e\u6837\u201d\u53d8\u6210\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u63d0\u95ee\u3002\u4f46\u6bd4\u8f83\u6c38\u8fdc\u4f9d\u8d56\u6211\u4eec\u4fdd\u7559\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u6539\u53d8\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u80fd\u6f84\u6e05\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u81ea\u52a8\u7ed9\u51fa\u552f\u4e00\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"z3YYxENaIG\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/iep.utm.edu\/causation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Causation<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u201cCausation\u201d \u2014 Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy\" src=\"https:\/\/iep.utm.edu\/causation\/embed\/#?secret=bv436fCaQM#?secret=z3YYxENaIG\" data-secret=\"z3YYxENaIG\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains how counterfactuals disciplined by facts clarify causation by comparing what changed under one altered condition, unlike prediction or regret.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u9610\u660e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5728\u53d7\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4ec5\u6539\u53d8\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u533a\u522b\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u540e\u6094\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787294141],"tags":[787297764,787297762,787297761,787297763],"class_list":["post-17901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-philosophical-concepts","tag-causal-reasoning","tag-counterfactuals","tag-counterfactuals-zh","tag-causal-reasoning-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Counterfactuals: Why \u2018What If\u2019 Is More Than Fantasy","zh_CN":"\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u65f6\u201d\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5e7b\u60f3\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-4EJ","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17901\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}