{"id":17866,"date":"2026-08-22T11:20:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T01:20:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-the-first-number-pulls-later-judgments\/"},"modified":"2026-08-22T11:20:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T01:20:04","slug":"why-the-first-number-pulls-later-judgments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-the-first-number-pulls-later-judgments\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4f1a\u62c9\u7740\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u8d70\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/public-assets.geoffreychen.com\/wordpress\/articles\/why-the-first-number-pulls-later-judgments\/8bf48eae971cc9f5b13c60dc.jpg?w=1140&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4f1a\u62c9\u7740\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u8d70\uff1f\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>\u770b\u4e8c\u624b\u8f66\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5356\u5bb6\u5148\u62a5\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u5373\u4f7f\u5927\u5e45\u8fd8\u4ef7\uff0c\u4e70\u5bb6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u56f4\u7ed5\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u601d\u8003\u3002\u8fd9\u53eb\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u5148\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6570\u503c\u6210\u4e3a\u53c2\u7167\u70b9\uff0c\u4f7f\u540e\u7eed\u4f30\u8ba1\u5411\u5b83\u9760\u8fd1\u3002Tversky \u548c Kahneman 1974\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u5b9e\u9a8c\u751a\u81f3\u4f7f\u7528\u968f\u673a\u8f6c\u76d8\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u518d\u8ba9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f30\u8ba1\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u4e2d\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u5360\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1b\u4e0d\u540c\u8d77\u59cb\u6570\u5b57\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u79fb\u52a8\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65e9\u671f\u89e3\u91ca\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u951a\u5b9a\u2014\u8c03\u6574\u201d\uff1a\u4eba\u4ece\u8d77\u70b9\u51fa\u53d1\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u5374\u901a\u5e38\u8c03\u6574\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u540e\u7eed\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u5fc5\u53ea\u6709\u8fd9\u4e00\u79cd\u3002\u951a\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4e0e\u5b83\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u8fdb\u5165\u5934\u8111\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9ad8\u62a5\u4ef7\u4f1a\u4f7f\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u5230\u652f\u6301\u9ad8\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u951a\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u5b8c\u5168\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u66f4\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u65e2\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u504f\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4efb\u4f55\u5148\u8bf4\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u90fd\u80fd\u64cd\u7eb5\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u3002\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u989d\u5916\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u951a\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u548c\u4efb\u52a1\u5f62\u5f0f\u90fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u6548\u679c\uff1b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5dee\u5f02\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u9884\u6d4b\u67d0\u4e00\u6b21\u771f\u5b9e\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u66f4\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u4e0d\u662f\u5f3a\u8feb\u81ea\u5df1\u201c\u522b\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u770b\u5230\u5bf9\u65b9\u6570\u5b57\u524d\u5148\u5f62\u6210\u72ec\u7acb\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3b\u52a8\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0e\u951a\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6d88\u9664\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u8d77\u70b9\u66ff\u4ee3\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124<\/a><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/00332941211016750\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/00332941211016750<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains the anchoring effect: why an initial number, like a high asking price, pulls later judgments, and why avoiding it means pre-judging and seeking counter-evidence.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u9610\u91ca\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5148\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff08\u5982\u9ad8\u62a5\u4ef7\uff09\u4f1a\u628a\u540e\u7eed\u5224\u65ad\u62c9\u5411\u5b83\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u5148\u72ec\u7acb\u5f62\u6210\u8303\u56f4\u5e76\u4e3b\u52a8\u627e\u53cd\u8bc1\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296909],"tags":[787297716,787297715,787297718,787297717],"class_list":["post-17866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-everyday-psychology","tag-anchoring-effect","tag-anchoring-effect-zh","tag-judgement-bias","tag-judgement-bias-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Why Does the First Number Pull Later Judgements Towards It?","zh_CN":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4f1a\u62c9\u7740\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u8d70\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-4Ea","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17866\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}