{"id":17543,"date":"2026-08-17T12:14:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T02:14:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-23-people-can-share-a-birthday\/"},"modified":"2026-08-17T12:14:52","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T02:14:52","slug":"why-23-people-can-share-a-birthday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-23-people-can-share-a-birthday\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e4823\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e2d\u5c31\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4eba\u540c\u751f\u65e5"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u623f\u95f4\u91cc\u53ea\u8981\u670923\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u4eba\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u7ea6\u4e3a50.7%\u3002\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0b\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u5728\u95ee\u201c\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4e0e\u6211\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u201d\u3002\u90a3\u6837\u786e\u5b9e\u53ea\u8fdb\u884c\u4e8622\u6b21\u6bd4\u8f83\uff1b\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5374\u662f\u4efb\u610f\u4e24\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>23\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ec4\u621023\u00d722\u00f72\uff1d253\u5bf9\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u673a\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u5f97\u5f88\u5feb\uff0c\u4f46253\u00f7365\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5404\u5bf9\u4e4b\u95f4\u5e76\u975e\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3002\u51c6\u786e\u7b97\u6cd5\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u65e5\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5ffd\u7565\u95f0\u65e5\uff0c\u5e76\u5047\u8bbe\u751f\u65e5\u5728365\u5929\u4e2d\u5747\u5300\u800c\u4e14\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e0d\u53d7\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u4eba\u8981\u907f\u5f00\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4eba\u8981\u907f\u5f00\u4e24\u4e2a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7ee7\u7eed\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1d365\/365\u00d7364\/365\u00d7363\/365\u00d7\u2026\u00d7343\/365\u224849.27%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u81f3\u5c11\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5bf9\u76f8\u540c\u751f\u65e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u662f1\uff0d49.27%\uff1d50.73%\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u6ce8\u610f\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u5374\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4eba\u6570\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\u914d\u5bf9\u6570\u91cf\u6309\u5e73\u65b9\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u751f\u65e5\u5e76\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u5747\u5300\uff0c\u53cc\u80de\u80ce\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7834\u574f\u72ec\u7acb\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4ecd\u7136\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<br \/>Purdue University, Birthday and Matching Problems<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stat.purdue.edu\/~mlevins\/docs\/stat516\/lecture_notes\/Lecture2a_STAT516.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.stat.purdue.edu\/~mlevins\/docs\/stat516\/lecture_notes\/Lecture2a_STAT516.pdf<\/a><br \/>University of Cambridge, Case Studies for CST IA Probability<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cl.cam.ac.uk\/teaching\/1112\/Probabilty\/Cases.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.cl.cam.ac.uk\/teaching\/1112\/Probabilty\/Cases.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains why the odds of a shared birthday exceed 50% with just 23 people, correcting the intuition about comparisons using exact pair 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