{"id":17256,"date":"2026-08-13T15:43:06","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T05:43:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/future-people-in-climate-models\/"},"modified":"2026-08-13T15:43:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T05:43:06","slug":"future-people-in-climate-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/future-people-in-climate-models\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4eba\uff0c\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd8\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u4e3b\u4f53\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u7248\u672c\u8bf4\u660e<\/strong> \u672c\u6587\u5c5e\u4e8e\u300a\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u300b\u7b2c 0.1 \u7248\u7814\u7a76\u7a3f\u3002\u5b83\u8ba8\u8bba\u6c14\u5019\u60c5\u666f\u600e\u6837\u628a\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u5e26\u5165\u5f53\u524d\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f5c\u65b0\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u3002IPCC \u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u5468\u671f\u8d44\u6599\u6838\u67e5\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 8 \u6708\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e03\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ecd\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u540e\u7eed\u7248\u672c\u9700\u968f\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u4fee\u8ba2\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><em>\u300a\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u300b\u00b7 \u7b2c 9 \u7bc7<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u5feb\u901f\u9605\u8bfb<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u67d0\u4e2a 2090 \u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u7269\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u6839\u636e\u6392\u653e\u6216\u6d53\u5ea6\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u6a21\u62df\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u7b49\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\uff1b\u5f71\u54cd\u6a21\u578b\u518d\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u571f\u5730\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u66b4\u9732\u548c\u635f\u5931\u3002\u8868\u683c\u91cc\u7684\u201c\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u60f3\u8c61\u3002\u5927\u6c14\u7269\u7406\u3001\u89c2\u6d4b\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u68c0\u9a8c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7ea6\u675f\u3002IPCC \u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f71\u54cd\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f7f\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7ed9\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u6c14\u5019\u672a\u6765\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u679c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5c1a\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u60c5\u666f\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5b83\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u662f\u201c\u5982\u679c\u6392\u653e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6761\u4ef6\u5982\u6b64\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u540e\u679c\u5927\u6982\u600e\u6837\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u653f\u6cbb\u5224\u65ad\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4f4d\u7f6e\u8fdb\u5165\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u9009\u62e9\u5c55\u793a\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u3001\u600e\u6837\u4f30\u8ba1\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u7ed9\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u8fc1\u79fb\u3001\u6587\u5316\u635f\u5931\u548c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d4b\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f83\u597d\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5374\u4f1a\u906e\u853d\u5730\u533a\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bcc\u88d5\u9002\u5e94\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u6a21\u578b\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u628a\u5c1a\u672a\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u80fd\u529b\u9884\u5148\u9001\u7ed9\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u5168\u7403\u6295\u5c04\u8d70\u5411\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u8bf4\u660e\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8f6c\u6362\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u66f4\u7ec6\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u8bef\u5f53\u6210\u66f4\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u4e3b\u4f53\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u62d2\u7edd\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u7ea0\u6b63\u6570\u636e\u6216\u8868\u8fbe\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u63ed\u793a\u67d0\u7c7b\u672a\u6765\u751f\u6d3b\u53d7\u5230\u600e\u6837\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u6388\u6743\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4ee3\u8868\u90a3\u4e9b\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5fc5\u987b\u628a\u6a21\u578b\u8f93\u51fa\u4e0e\u6743\u5229\u3001\u5206\u914d\u3001\u5f53\u5730\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u53ef\u9006\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u7ed3\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5229\u76ca\u63d0\u4f9b\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u7684\u53ef\u89c1\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0d\u63d0\u4f9b\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u7684\u540c\u610f\u3002\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u5e94\u516c\u5e03\u60c5\u666f\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u591a\u6761\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u7fa4\u4f53\u548c\u5730\u533a\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u4fdd\u7559\u5b89\u5168\u4f59\u91cf\u3002\u4e0d\u80fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u5b9e\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u5b83\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u6570\u5b57\u7cbe\u786e\u4fbf\u628a\u653f\u6cbb\u8d23\u4efb\u4ea4\u7ed9\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e00\u3001\u4e00\u5f20 2100 \u5e74\u635f\u5931\u5730\u56fe\u7a76\u7adf\u753b\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u5730\u56fe\u53ef\u80fd\u663e\u793a 2100 \u5e74\u67d0\u5730\u533a\u66b4\u9732\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u6216\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u989c\u8272\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u4ee5\u767e\u4e07\u8ba1\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u5b83\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5b9e\u51b5\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u751f\u6210\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5305\u542b\u591a\u5c42\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u6216\u6d53\u5ea6\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f3a\u8feb\u4e0b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u54cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7b49\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u533a\u57df\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u628a\u5168\u7403\u8f93\u51fa\u8f6c\u6210\u8f83\u7ec6\u7a7a\u95f4\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc4\u4f30\u518d\u53e0\u52a0\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u5efa\u7b51\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u66b4\u9732\u6216\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bcf\u4e00\u5c42\u56de\u7b54\u4e0d\u540c\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u600e\u6837\u53d8\u5316\uff1b\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u666f\u63cf\u8ff0\u53ef\u80fd\u793e\u4f1a\uff1b\u635f\u5bb3\u51fd\u6570\u628a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u540e\u679c\u5173\u8054\uff1b\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4ef7\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u54ea\u4e9b\u540e\u679c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u628a\u6700\u540e\u5730\u56fe\u7edf\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bf4 2100 \u5e74\u4f1a\u600e\u6837\u201d\uff0c\u4f1a\u9690\u85cf\u5176\u6761\u4ef6\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5206\u5c42\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5426\u5b9a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u53d7\u5230\u5f3a\u8bc1\u636e\u7ea6\u675f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7d2f\u79ef\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5e76\u975e\u4efb\u610f\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u8303\u56f4\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u6240\u6709\u7ed3\u679c\u540c\u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f7f\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f71\u54cd\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u3001\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3001\u6295\u5c04\u548c\u60c5\u666f\u9700\u8981\u5206\u5f00<\/h2>\n<p>IPCC Working Group I \u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/resources\/spm-headline-statements\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u6458\u8981<\/a>\u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f71\u54cd\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f7f\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u53d8\u6696\u8868\u8ff0\u4e3a\u660e\u786e\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u4f9d\u636e\u89c2\u6d4b\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u6e29\u5ea6\u5219\u4ee5\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u6295\u5c04\u8868\u8fbe\u3002IPCC \u91c7\u7528 SSP1-1.9\u3001SSP2-4.5\u3001SSP5-8.5 \u7b49\u8bf4\u660e\u6027\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u8def\u5f84\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/summary-for-policymakers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AR6 \u7efc\u5408\u62a5\u544a<\/a>\u7ed9\u51fa 2081\u20132100 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u6e29\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ea6 1.4\u00b0C\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u60c5\u666f\u7ea6 2.7\u00b0C\uff0c\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u60c5\u666f\u7ea6 4.4\u00b0C\uff0c\u5e76\u540c\u65f6\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u503c\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e92\u76f8\u7ade\u4e89\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3002\u672a\u6765\u6392\u653e\u7531\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u6280\u672f\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u5171\u540c\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u5728\u4e00\u5957\u5185\u90e8\u4e00\u81f4\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u63a2\u7d22\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e3a\u6bcf\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u81ea\u52a8\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3002IPCC \u5bf9\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u901a\u884c\u5b9a\u4e49\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5408\u7406\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u6216\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6295\u5c04\u5185\u90e8\u8fd8\u6709\u7269\u7406\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u7387\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u77e5\u9053\u8303\u56f4\u6765\u81ea\u60c5\u666f\u5dee\u5f02\u8fd8\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u76f8\u5e94\u884c\u52a8\u4e0d\u540c\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u53ef\u7531\u51cf\u6392\u9009\u62e9\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u97e7\u6027\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u4f59\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8bed\u8a00\u8fd8\u8981\u4fdd\u7559 IPCC \u7684\u6821\u51c6\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684 confidence \u4e0e likelihood \u4e0d\u662f\u65e5\u5e38\u8bed\u6c14\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6709\u70b9\u76f8\u4fe1\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f9d\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u4e00\u81f4\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u6587\u4ef6\u82e5\u53ea\u6458\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0a\u9650\u3001\u4e0b\u9650\u6216\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u539f\u8bc4\u4f30\u6240\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u8f6c\u8ff0\u5e94\u540c\u65f6\u8bf4\u660e\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u548c\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001Shared Socioeconomic Pathways \u5e26\u5165\u4e86\u600e\u6837\u7684\u793e\u4f1a<\/h2>\n<p>SSP \u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u6392\u653e\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u7b49\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u6784\u9020\u4e0d\u540c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u571f\u5730\u548c\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u518d\u628a\u6392\u653e\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u9996\u5148\u4ee5\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5c45\u4f4f\u5730\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u7b49\u805a\u5408\u53d8\u91cf\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u59d3\u540d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8868\u8fbe\u6b63\u4e49\u89c2\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u76f8\u8fd1\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u5374\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u571f\u5730\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u5206\u914d\u8def\u5f84\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u5bf9\u5177\u4f53\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u805a\u5408\u662f\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6a21\u62df\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u7edf\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u805a\u5408\u7ed3\u679c\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002GDP \u5e73\u5747\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u8c01\u6709\u7a7a\u8c03\u3001\u4fdd\u9669\u3001\u8fc1\u79fb\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002\u6cbf\u6d77\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8868\u8fbe\u4e0e\u571f\u5730\u7684\u6587\u5316\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8f6c\u6362\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u5236\u9020\u8fb9\u754c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u96e8\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0e\u67d0\u4e2a\u6d41\u57df\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u5e76\u975e\u540c\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u76ee\u6807\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u680b\u5efa\u7b51\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5728\u5168\u7403\u3001\u533a\u57df\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u8d44\u6599\u4e4b\u95f4\u8bf4\u660e\u8f6c\u6362\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8f83\u7ec6\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u4f1a\u7ed9\u4eba\u4e00\u79cd\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u5148\u89e3\u51b3\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u5e94\u63ed\u793a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5982\u679c\u672a\u6765\u6536\u5165\u88ab\u8bbe\u5f97\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u4e4b\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u635f\u5bb3\u5360 GDP \u6bd4\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u589e\u957f\u662f\u5426\u5230\u8fbe\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7fa4\u4f53\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u5426\u5efa\u8bbe\u516c\u5171\u9002\u5e94\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5e73\u6ed1\u5047\u8bbe\u4f1a\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u66f4\u6709\u81ea\u6551\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u4f55\u65f6\u4ece\u53d8\u91cf\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u4ef7\u503c\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u70ed\u91cf\u548c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u6bd4\u8f83\u4eba\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u6b7b\u4ea1\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u635f\u5931\u548c\u623f\u4ea7\u53ef\u88ab\u8d27\u5e01\u5316\uff0c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u6587\u5316\u5730\u70b9\u5219\u8f83\u96be\u3002\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u51b3\u5b9a\u8fdc\u671f\u540e\u679c\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0d\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5077\u5077\u53d8\u6210\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u516c\u5171\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u9700\u8981\u4ef7\u503c\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u5426\u516c\u5f00\u3002\u82e5\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u62a5\u544a\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u6700\u4f18\u78b3\u4ef7\u201d\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u589e\u957f\u3001\u635f\u5bb3\u51fd\u6570\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u548c\u6298\u73b0\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u7b2c\u4e09\u7bc7\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u7ecf\u8fc7\u767e\u5e74\u4f1a\u6781\u5927\u6539\u53d8\u73b0\u503c\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u53c8\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5206\u914d\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u5165\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d2b\u56f0\u519c\u6237\u548c\u5bcc\u88d5\u57ce\u5e02\u5bb6\u5ead\u610f\u4e49\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u6587\u5316\u4e0e\u751f\u6001\u635f\u5bb3\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u8f83\u9ad8\u672a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u7b80\u5355\u8865\u507f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u751f\u547d\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u4f5c\u4e3a\u635f\u5bb3\u51fd\u6570\u4e2d\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u671f\u671b\u3002\u6570\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5374\u5e94\u4e0e\u975e\u8d27\u5e01\u6307\u6807\u3001\u6743\u5229\u9608\u503c\u548c\u5730\u533a\u5206\u6790\u5e76\u5217\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u8d8a\u805a\u5408\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u5224\u65ad\u8d8a\u9700\u8981\u6062\u590d\u88ab\u538b\u5e73\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u5426\u4ee3\u8868\u5c1a\u672a\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u4eba<\/h2>\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u529f\u80fd\uff1a\u5b83\u8ba9\u76ee\u524d\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d1\u8a00\u7684\u540e\u679c\u8fdb\u5165\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u957f\u671f\u6295\u5c04\uff0c\u767e\u5e74\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u70ed\u98ce\u9669\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u628a\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5b83\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u6388\u6743\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u64a4\u6362\u5efa\u6a21\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u81ea\u5df1\u91cd\u89c6\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u5219\u4e0d\u80fd\u7531\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u5355\u72ec\u8bc1\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u628a\u6a21\u578b\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u201d\u56e0\u800c\u4f1a\u8d8a\u754c\u3002\u5b83\u66f4\u50cf\u4e00\u5957\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\uff1a\u82e5\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u67d0\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u67d0\u7c7b\u4eba\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u9762\u5bf9\u54ea\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8bc1\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u653f\u6cbb\u8005\u968f\u610f\u5426\u8ba4\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u66ff\u793e\u4f1a\u5b8c\u6210\u5206\u914d\u548c\u6743\u5229\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u6a21\u578b\u6ca1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u6388\u6743\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5ffd\u7565\u5b83\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u6865\u6881\u5e94\u529b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e76\u975e\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9009\u4e3e\u624d\u83b7\u5f97\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc1\u636e\u5728\u5176\u80fd\u529b\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5177\u6709\u8ba4\u8bc6\u6743\u5a01\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u673a\u6784\u8981\u505a\u7684\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bc1\u636e\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u5165\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c\u9009\u62e9\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u7968\u51b3\u5b9a\u7269\u7406\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u591a\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f<\/h2>\n<p>\u53ea\u5c55\u793a\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u5c1a\u672a\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f53\u6210\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1b\u53ea\u5c55\u793a\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u8bfb\u8005\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u591a\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u79bb\u53ef\u7531\u884c\u52a8\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e0e\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u9664\u7684\u7269\u7406\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u60c5\u666f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u592e\u672a\u6765\u3002\u82e5\u628a\u9ad8\u4f4e\u8def\u5f84\u52a0\u6743\u6210\u5355\u4e00\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u865a\u5047\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002\u89c4\u5212\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u68c0\u67e5\u4e0d\u540c\u8def\u5f84\u4e2d\u5171\u540c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u9ad8\u540e\u679c\u60c5\u666f\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5e94\u53d8\u89e6\u53d1\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u9ad8\u540e\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u201c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\u8303\u56f4\u4fbf\u6392\u9664\u3002IPCC \u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\u51b0\u76d6\u5d29\u584c\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u73af\u6d41\u7a81\u53d8\u7b49\u4f4e\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u6392\u9664\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u516c\u5171\u5b89\u5168\u901a\u5e38\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u6309\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u60c5\u666f\u9009\u62e9\u8fd8\u5e94\u968f\u7528\u9014\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9700\u8981\u533a\u57df\u6781\u7aef\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u5bff\u547d\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8c08\u5224\u5173\u5fc3\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6392\u653e\u4e0e\u516c\u5e73\uff0c\u793e\u533a\u9002\u5e94\u5219\u9700\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002\u628a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u56fe\u8868\u7528\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u9519\u8bef\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u663e\u5f97\u6743\u5a01\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e03\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u5916\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8c01\u8fdb\u5165\u51b3\u5b9a<\/h2>\n<p>\u53d7\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u73b0\u5b58\u793e\u7fa4\u62e5\u6709\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6837\u672c\u3002\u539f\u4f4f\u6c11\u571f\u5730\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u533b\u7597\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u70ed\u75c5\u8d44\u6599\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u7ef4\u62a4\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u53d6\u4ee3\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6539\u53d8\u98ce\u9669\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9752\u5e74\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e5f\u6709\u7279\u6b8a\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u73b0\u5b58\u6743\u5229\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u5c06\u7ecf\u5386\u66f4\u957f\u653f\u7b56\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u6240\u6709\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u3002\u5176\u53c2\u4e0e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ea0\u6b63\u653f\u6cbb\u5e74\u9f84\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u201c\u672a\u6765\u5df2\u7ecf\u540c\u610f\u201d\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u6cbb\u7406\u9700\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5f00\u3001\u7248\u672c\u8bb0\u5f55\u3001\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u6027\u548c\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u5546\u4e1a\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u82e5\u5f71\u54cd\u4fdd\u9669\u548c\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u540c\u4e00\u6c14\u5019\u6295\u5c04\u8fdb\u5165\u5b9a\u4ef7\u540e\uff0c\u4f1a\u7acb\u523b\u6539\u53d8\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u201c\u672a\u6765\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ea7\u751f\u5f53\u524d\u5206\u914d\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u8981\u7531\u53ef\u95ee\u8d23\u673a\u6784\u4f5c\u51fa\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u88ab\u8feb\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u8005\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u9009\u62e9\u627f\u62c5\u5168\u90e8\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u201d\u6765\u907f\u514d\u89e3\u91ca\u8c01\u627f\u62c5\u6210\u672c\u3001\u4e3a\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b89\u5168\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516b\u3001\u6682\u5b9a\u5224\u65ad\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u8ba9\u672a\u6765\u540e\u679c\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba9\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u5230\u573a<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4efb\u610f\u865a\u6784\u3002\u5b83\u7531\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5047\u8bbe\u6784\u9020\uff0c\u5728\u53d7\u7269\u7406\u8bc1\u636e\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6295\u5c04\u4e2d\u627f\u53d7\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u540e\u679c\u3002\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e3b\u4f53\u201d\u5219\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u53d8\u91cf\u6ca1\u6709\u6743\u5229\u5b9e\u8df5\u3001\u540c\u610f\u548c\u53cd\u9a73\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u9650\u5b9a\u6ca1\u6709\u524a\u5f31\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4ee3\u9645\u6cbb\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u884c\u52a8\u6539\u53d8\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u540e\u679c\u6301\u7eed\u6781\u4e45\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u80fd\u591f\u63ed\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u8005\u5851\u9020\u54ea\u4e9b\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5e76\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7f3a\u5e2d\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5f53\u524d\u5229\u76ca\u5229\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8981\u4fdd\u7559\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u3002\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3001\u7269\u7406\u6295\u5c04\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u60c5\u666f\u3001\u635f\u5bb3\u4f30\u503c\u548c\u89c4\u8303\u51b3\u5b9a\u5e94\u5206\u522b\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8981\u5c55\u793a\u8303\u56f4\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u7ed3\u8bba\u63a5\u53d7\u591a\u60c5\u666f\u68c0\u9a8c\uff1b\u5bf9\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u548c\u9ad8\u540e\u679c\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u9700\u8bbe\u7f6e\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u578b\u6388\u6743\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u96be\u58f0\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u957f\u671f\u540e\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u7ed9\u51fa\u552f\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5374\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u51b3\u5b9a\u8005\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u8d23\u4efb\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u67d0\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u5df2\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u7559\u7ed9\u65e0\u6cd5\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u7ed9\u51fa\u6bd4\u4e00\u5f20\u7cbe\u786e\u56fe\u8868\u66f4\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u6599\u4e0e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9605\u8bfb<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>IPCC, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis<\/em><\/a>, especially Chapter 4 and the Summary for Policymakers.<\/li>\n<li>IPCC, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/resources\/spm-headline-statements\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Working Group I Summary for Policymakers headline statements<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>IPCC, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg3\/chapter\/summary-for-policymakers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change \u2014 Summary for Policymakers<\/em><\/a>, including its explanation of modelled pathways.<\/li>\n<li>IPCC, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/summary-for-policymakers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>AR6 Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers<\/em><\/a>, 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u7cfb\u5217\u5bfc\u822a\uff1a<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/the-future-has-no-representative\/\">\u300a\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u603b\u89c8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains how climate models use conditional future populations and scenarios\u2014not future testimony or consent\u2014and where political value choices enter decisions.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u9610\u660e\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u662f\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u53d8\u91cf\u800c\u975e\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u6216\u540c\u610f\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u4ef7\u503c\u5224\u65ad\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u5efa\u6a21\u4e4b\u5916\u8fdb\u5165\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296847],"tags":[787296870,787296852,787296850,787296848,787296849,787296853,787296871,787296851],"class_list":["post-17256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-future-has-no-representative","tag-climate-models","tag-future-generations","tag-intergenerational-justice","tag-the-future-has-no-representative","tag-the-future-has-no-representative-zh","tag-future-generations-zh","tag-climate-models-zh","tag-intergenerational-justice-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Are the Future People in Climate Models Facts, Assumptions, or Political Subjects?","zh_CN":"\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4eba\uff0c\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd8\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u4e3b\u4f53\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-4uk","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}