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GDP \u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4ee3\u9645\u4f26\u7406\u4e0d\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d22\u653f\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u8d1f\u62c5\u5206\u914d\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u5f53\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001\u503a\u52a1\u7528\u9014\u4e3a\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u9053\u5fb7\u5224\u65ad<\/h2>\n<p>\u501f\u6b3e\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u5bff\u547d\u76f8\u914d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee3\u9645\u5206\u644a\u7406\u7531\u3002\u82e5\u4e00\u5ea7\u6865\u5728\u672a\u6765\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u8ba9\u5efa\u8bbe\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u627f\u62c5\u5168\u90e8\u6210\u672c\u672a\u5fc5\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u53d1\u884c\u957f\u671f\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u4f7f\u4f7f\u7528\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u540e\u6765\u5c45\u6c11\u4e5f\u901a\u8fc7\u7a0e\u6536\u53c2\u4e0e\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u73b0\u6536\u73b0\u4ed8\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u53d7\u76ca\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u7531\u8981\u6c42\u8bbe\u65bd\u771f\u7684\u6709\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u9879\u76ee\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e94\u5305\u62ec\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u8fd0\u8425\u3001\u7ef4\u62a4\u3001\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u9000\u5f79\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u540e\u671f\u652f\u51fa\u7559\u7ed9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u7b97\u3002\u82e5\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u6cbb\u53d6\u5f97\u526a\u5f69\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u653f\u5e9c\u53ea\u80fd\u652f\u4ed8\u7ef4\u4fee\u4e0e\u503a\u606f\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5339\u914d\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503a\u52a1\u7528\u4e8e\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u5e76\u975e\u5bb9\u6613\u5217\u5165\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u7684\u5efa\u7b51\u3002\u6280\u80fd\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u9632\u548c\u77e5\u8bc6\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u672a\u6765\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5374\u96be\u4ee5\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u5f53\u524d\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u53ef\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u513f\u7ae5\u8d2b\u56f0\u7684\u957f\u671f\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e5f\u5177\u6709\u8de8\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u628a\u6240\u6709\u201c\u7ecf\u5e38\u652f\u51fa\u201d\u89c6\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f1a\u628a\u9884\u7b97\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5206\u7c7b\u8bef\u5f53\u6210\u793e\u4f1a\u672c\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u501f\u6b3e\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4e00\u9879\u652f\u51fa\u662f\u5426\u9632\u6b62\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ee5\u540e\u8c03\u6574\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u628a\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u6cbb\u6210\u672c\u63a8\u8fdf\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u9700\u8981\u9879\u76ee\u5c42\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u9760\u8d44\u672c\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u957f\u671f\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h2>\n<p>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/treasury.gov.au\/publication\/2023-intergenerational-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>2023 Intergenerational Report<\/em><\/a>\u628a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u8054\u90a6\u9884\u7b97\u524d\u666f\u6295\u5c04\u5230 2062\u201363\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u5173\u6ce8\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u8f6c\u578b\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u53ca\u51c0\u96f6\u8f6c\u578b\u3001\u7167\u62a4\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u957f\u671f\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u5b83\u5c1d\u8bd5\u663e\u793a\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u600e\u6837\u6539\u53d8\u6536\u5165\u3001\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6295\u5c04\u201d\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u3002\u751f\u80b2\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u3001\u5229\u7387\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u4f1a\u504f\u79bb\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u4ee3\u9645\u62a5\u544a\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9 2063 \u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u62e5\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u7cbe\u786e\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u5f53\u65f6\u5c45\u6c11\u5199\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u540c\u8d28\u5229\u76ca\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u5b83\u66f4\u50cf\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff1a\u82e5\u5e72\u6761\u4ef6\u5927\u81f4\u5ef6\u7eed\u65f6\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u7a0e\u57fa\u5173\u7cfb\u503c\u5f97\u4eca\u5929\u6ce8\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a Parliamentary Budget Office \u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbo.gov.au\/publications-and-data\/publications\/2025-26-Medium-term-budget-outlook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>2025\u201326 Medium-Term Budget Outlook: Beyond the Budget<\/em><\/a>\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u66f4\u65b0\u5230 2035\u201336 \u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u6295\u5c04\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u653f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u60c5\u666f\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230 2068\u201369\u3002PBO \u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u6570\u957f\u671f\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u5360 GDP \u6bd4\u7387\u4ecd\u8d8b\u4e8e\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u672a\u6765\u653f\u5e9c\u7ee7\u7eed\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7ba1\u7406\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\uff1b\u62a5\u544a\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u4f9d\u8d56\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4ee3\u9645\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5316\u6210\u201c\u503a\u52a1\u6ca1\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u201d\u3002\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u8868\u793a\u67d0\u6761\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u6bcf\u9879\u652f\u51fa\u516c\u5e73\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u672a\u6765\u670d\u52a1\u5145\u5206\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u5f53\u6210\u524a\u51cf\u4efb\u4f55\u5f53\u524d\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u7406\u7531\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5e94\u5e2e\u52a9\u516c\u4f17\u770b\u89c1\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u6574\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u8d8a\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9884\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d26\u6237<\/h2>\n<p>\u4ee3\u9645\u8d22\u653f\u8ba8\u8bba\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u4eca\u5929\u4e0e\u660e\u5929\u5199\u6210\u4e24\u4e2a\u6574\u9f50\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6536\u5165\u3001\u8d22\u5bcc\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u4ea4\u53c9\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u65e2\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u957f\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u672a\u6765\u627f\u53d7\u8005\uff1b\u9ad8\u9f84\u5c45\u6c11\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u5e76\u628a\u8d44\u4ea7\u9057\u8d60\u7ed9\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eb2\u5c5e\u3002\u79fb\u6c11\u4f1a\u52a0\u5165\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u51fa\u751f\u8005\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8fdb\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u4ed8\u7684\u5206\u914d\u4f9d\u8d56\u7a0e\u5236\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u6d88\u8d39\u7a0e\u7b79\u8d44\uff0c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u53ef\u80fd\u627f\u62c5\u8f83\u9ad8\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d1f\u62c5\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u7d2f\u8fdb\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u76f8\u5173\u7a0e\u6536\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u501f\u6b3e\u82e5\u62ac\u9ad8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5df2\u6301\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u8005\u4e0e\u6ca1\u6709\u4f4f\u623f\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u603b\u503a\u52a1\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u9700\u628a\u751f\u6001\u8d1f\u503a\u7eb3\u5165\u89c6\u91ce\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u8f83\u4f4e\u91d1\u878d\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u5374\u5bb9\u8bb8\u6c34\u571f\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u751f\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e25\u91cd\u9000\u5316\u3002\u672a\u6765\u8d22\u653f\u8868\u9762\u5e72\u51c0\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u73af\u5883\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6210\u672c\u5374\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4e3a\u51cf\u6392\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u501f\u6b3e\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u91d1\u878d\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u964d\u4f4e\u4ee5\u540e\u707e\u5bb3\u635f\u5931\u3002\u53ea\u628a\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u503a\u5238\u79f0\u4f5c\u201c\u7559\u7ed9\u540e\u4ee3\u7684\u8d1f\u62c5\u201d\uff0c\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4f30\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u5165\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7c7b\u4f3c\u9057\u6f0f\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u672a\u62e8\u6b3e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u3001\u533b\u7597\u6280\u672f\u3001\u707e\u5bb3\u6062\u590d\u548c\u516c\u5171\u96c7\u5458\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u53ef\u80fd\u5f62\u6210\u957f\u671f\u652f\u51fa\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5374\u672a\u5168\u90e8\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u5f53\u671f\u503a\u5238\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u6b63\u5f0f\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u76f8\u52a0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u503a\u52a1\u201d\u6570\u5b57\uff1b\u653f\u5e9c\u4ecd\u5e94\u5728\u957f\u671f\u9884\u7b97\u4e2d\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u627f\u8bfa\u5bf9\u7a0e\u6536\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u53ea\u63a7\u5236\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u884c\u7684\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0d\u65ad\u521b\u9020\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u5165\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e49\u52a1\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u89e3\u51b3\u4ee3\u9645\u8d22\u653f\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u8d22\u653f\u7f13\u51b2\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u8f83\u4f4e\u503a\u52a1\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u672a\u77e5\u5371\u673a\u5230\u6765\u65f6\u4fdd\u7559\u501f\u6b3e\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u96f6\u672c\u8eab\u5177\u6709\u9053\u5fb7\u4f18\u8d8a\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u501f\u6b3e\u82e5\u9632\u6b62\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u6280\u80fd\u6216\u5173\u952e\u8bbe\u65bd\u6c38\u4e45\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5f3a\u4ee5\u540e\u507f\u4ed8\u4e49\u52a1\u6240\u4f9d\u9760\u7684\u7a0e\u57fa\u3002\u8d22\u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GDP 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Treasury, <a href=\"https:\/\/treasury.gov.au\/publication\/2023-intergenerational-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>2023 Intergenerational Report<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Parliamentary Budget Office, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbo.gov.au\/publications-and-data\/publications\/2025-26-Medium-term-budget-outlook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>2025\u201326 Medium-Term Budget Outlook: Beyond the Budget<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>OECD, <a href=\"https:\/\/legalinstruments.oecd.org\/en\/instruments\/OECD-LEGAL-0410\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Recommendation of the Council on Budgetary Governance<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>International Monetary Fund, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/dsa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Debt Sustainability Analysis<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u7cfb\u5217\u5bfc\u822a\uff1a<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/the-future-has-no-representative\/\">\u300a\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u603b\u89c8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Evaluates how to judge intergenerational public debt, arguing that what\u2019s borrowed must be weighed against assets, distribution, risks and repayment capacity\u2014not a debt-per-child 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Much Public Debt May We Leave to the Next 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