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<code>(1+r)^t<\/code>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d <code>r<\/code> \u662f\u5e74\u6298\u73b0\u7387\uff0c<code>t<\/code> \u662f\u5e74\u6570\u3002\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u540e\u7684 100 \u5143\u5728 3.5% \u4e0b\u7ea6\u503c\u4eca\u5929 3.21 \u5143\uff1b\u5728 7% \u4e0b\u7ea6\u4e3a 0.12 \u5143\u3002\u672a\u6765\u90a3\u4e00\u767e\u5143\u6ca1\u6709\u7269\u7406\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u662f\u5b83\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u65b9\u6848\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u5f02\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u771f\u5b9e\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e24\u4e2a\u9632\u62a4\u65b9\u6848\uff1a\u8f83\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u73b0\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u5efa\u8bbe\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5374\u80fd\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u6d2a\u707e\u6216\u6c61\u67d3\uff1b\u4fbf\u5b9c\u65b9\u6848\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u7559\u5728\u540e\u671f\u3002\u9ad8\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u8fdc\u671f\u635f\u5bb3\u5728\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u4e2d\u51e0\u4e4e\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u4fbf\u5b9c\u65b9\u6848\u56e0\u6b64\u80dc\u51fa\u3002\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ee5\u540e\u635f\u5bb3\u7684\u73b0\u503c\uff0c\u4f7f\u9884\u9632\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u5408\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6bd4\u8f83\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u6765\u81ea\u8f93\u5165\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u6298\u73b0\u7ed3\u6784\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u540e\u679c\u88ab\u8d27\u5e01\u5316\u3002\u82e5\u5206\u6790\u53ea\u516c\u5e03\u6700\u7ec8\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u770b\u4e0d\u51fa\u65b9\u6848\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u5728\u6280\u672f\u8868\u683c\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u5360\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u5143\u683c\uff0c\u5374\u5305\u542b\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4ee3\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u6f84\u6e05\u8bed\u8a00\u3002\u201c\u6298\u73b0\u672a\u6765\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u201d\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4eba\u9053\u5fb7\u5730\u8f83\u8f7b\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u7387\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ed6\u4eec\u906d\u9047\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u73af\u5883\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u51b3\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd1\u4f3c\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4f26\u7406\u95ee\u9898\u7531\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u5165\u5236\u5ea6\u540e\u679c\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u53ea\u7531\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u672f\u8bed\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u7a76\u7adf\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6298\u73b0<\/h2>\n<p>\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e09\u7c7b\u7406\u7531\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u653e\u8fdb\u793e\u4f1a\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7c7b\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u6709\u5173\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u8f83\u65e9\u83b7\u5f97\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u9065\u8fdc\u6536\u76ca\u80fd\u5426\u5b9e\u73b0\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f1a\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u597d\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u6765\u81ea\u672a\u6765\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e73\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u6c34\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4eca\u5929\u3002\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u5143\u589e\u52a0\u7ed9\u5bcc\u88d5\u793e\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u798f\u5229\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ed9\u8d2b\u56f0\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u672c\u8eab\u8f83\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u5355\u4f4d\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6d88\u8d39\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u798f\u5229\u8d21\u732e\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u589e\u957f\u5e76\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u8d22\u5bcc\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u906e\u853d\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e09\u7c7b\u662f\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7528\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u672c\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u6295\u8d44\u6216\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u8db3\u591f\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9879\u76ee\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u793e\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u533b\u9662\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u6216\u51cf\u8d2b\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5728\u8d44\u672c\u7a00\u7f3a\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u8f83\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u786e\u5b9e\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ffd\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9879\u76ee\u98ce\u9669\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u88ab\u52a0\u5165\u6298\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u5bb9\u6613\u6df7\u4e71\u3002\u6865\u6881\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u6280\u672f\u5931\u8d25\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u60c5\u666f\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u82e5\u628a\u6240\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u90fd\u585e\u8fdb\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u9ad8\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bf4\u660e\u7a76\u7adf\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u54ea\u9879\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u66f4\u900f\u660e\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u8c03\u6574\u9884\u671f\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u3001\u8bbe\u7f6e\u60c5\u666f\u6216\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u5206\u5f00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u7531\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8d44\u672c\u56de\u62a5\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u767e\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u53ea\u80fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u533a\u95f4\uff1b\u7eaf\u7cb9\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u8fd8\u89e6\u53ca\u89c4\u8303\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u82e5\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u51fa\u751f\u8f83\u665a\u5c31\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u76f8\u540c\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u4ece\u5e73\u7b49\u539f\u5219\u5f97\u5230\u652f\u6301\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u4f46\u53c2\u6570\u4e0d\u80fd\u63a9\u76d6\u5b83\u6df7\u5408\u4e86\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f7f\u7528\u9012\u51cf\u7387<\/h2>\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8 2026 \u5e74\u7248 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government\/the-green-book-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>The Green Book<\/em><\/a>\u53ca\u5176\u8d34\u73b0\u8865\u5145\u6307\u5357\u89c4\u5b9a\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\u5728\u7b2c 1 \u81f3 30 \u5e74\u91c7\u7528 3.5% \u7684\u6807\u51c6\u793e\u4f1a\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u7387\uff0c\u7b2c 31 \u81f3 75 \u5e74\u4e3a 3.0%\uff0c\u7b2c 76 \u81f3 125 \u5e74\u4e3a 2.5%\u3002\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u751f\u547d\u4ef7\u503c\u4f7f\u7528\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u6bd4\u7387\uff1a\u4e09\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\u4f9d\u6b21\u4e3a 1.5%\u30011.286% \u548c 1.071%\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u671f\u9650\u8d85\u8fc7 50 \u5e74\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u8865\u5145\u6307\u5357\u8fd8\u8981\u6c42\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u9879\u6392\u9664\u7eaf\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u66f4\u957f\u533a\u95f4\u53e6\u5217\u9012\u51cf\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u957f\u671f\u9879\u76ee\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u5e94\u628a\u6700\u521d 30 \u5e74\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6bd4\u7387\u65e0\u9650\u5ef6\u4f38\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9012\u51cf\u7684\u7406\u7531\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5bf9\u8fdc\u671f\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u672c\u8eab\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u672a\u6765\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u201c\u6b63\u786e\u201d\u6bd4\u7387\u82e5\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u7b49\u6548\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u9012\u51cf\u4e5f\u51cf\u8f7b\u56fa\u5b9a\u9ad8\u6bd4\u7387\u5bf9\u975e\u5e38\u9065\u8fdc\u540e\u679c\u7684\u538b\u7f29\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba9\u672a\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u540c\u7b49\u6743\u91cd\uff1a\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4ecd\u7136\u660e\u663e\u4f4e\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e0b\u964d\u6ca1\u6709\u56fa\u5b9a 3.5% \u90a3\u4e48\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u751f\u547d\u91c7\u7528\u8f83\u4f4e\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0d\u5e94\u6309\u666e\u901a\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5b8c\u5168\u6298\u51cf\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6536\u5165\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u964d\u4f4e\u5065\u5eb7\u98ce\u9669\u652f\u4ed8\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u8981\u8c28\u614e\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u5e76\u975e\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u6709\u9650\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0b\u6bd4\u8f83\u98ce\u9669\u964d\u4f4e\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u751f\u547d\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u8c03\u6574\u751f\u547d\u5e74\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u5404\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u66ff\u4ee3\u6743\u5229\u3001\u4e34\u5e8a\u9700\u8981\u548c\u5206\u914d\u6b63\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u89c4\u5219\u8fd8\u6709\u4f8b\u5916\u548c\u8865\u5145\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6781\u957f\u671f\u3001\u4ee3\u9645\u6216\u91cd\u5927\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u540e\u679c\u4e0d\u5e94\u53ea\u62a5\u544a\u4e00\u4e2a\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u3002\u5206\u6790\u4ecd\u9700\u8bf4\u660e\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u8d27\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u68c0\u67e5\u8c01\u83b7\u76ca\u3001\u8c01\u627f\u62c5\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e0d\u540c\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u662f\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u6279\u51c6\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u5f00\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48<\/h2>\n<p>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u653f\u5e9c Office of Impact Analysis \u7684\u6210\u672c\u6536\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u7f51\u9875\u66fe\u4ee5 7% \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u592e\u5b9e\u9645\u6298\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u8981\u6c42\u4f7f\u7528 3% \u4e0e 10% \u8fdb\u884c\u654f\u611f\u6027\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u5176<a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/resources\/guidance-assessing-impacts\/environmental-valuation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u73af\u5883\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u5357<\/a>\u8fd8\u5217\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7 30 \u5e74\u65f6\u9010\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684 7% \u76f8\u6bd4\u82f1\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u7387\uff0c\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u8fdc\u671f\u540e\u679c\u7684\u73b0\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u65f6\u6548\u8bf4\u660e\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u622a\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 8 \u6708\uff0cOIA \u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/resources\/cost-benefit-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u672c\u6536\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u9875\u9762<\/a>\u5df2\u660e\u786e\u6807\u6ce8\uff0c\u65e7 Regulatory Impact Analysis framework \u5728 2026 \u5e74 7 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u540e\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u73b0\u884c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u65b0 Australian Government Policy Impact Analysis Framework \u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u6307\u5357\u4ecd\u5728\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002\u672c\u6587\u56e0\u6b64\u53ea\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u503c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u516c\u5f00\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4e0d\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u6240\u6709\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u653f\u7b56\u5fc5\u987b\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7edf\u4e00\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u9879\u8fc7\u6e21\u672c\u8eab\u8bf4\u660e\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8de8\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u5e38\u6570\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u793e\u4f1a\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u6216\u5177\u4f53\u884c\u4e1a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u53ea\u6bd4\u8f83\u201c3.5% \u8fd8\u662f 7%\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5224\u65ad\u8c01\u66f4\u5173\u5fc3\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u770b\u5b83\u4eec\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e9b\u6d41\u91cf\u3001\u662f\u5426\u5b9e\u9645\u6216\u540d\u4e49\u6bd4\u7387\u3001\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u9012\u51cf\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5206\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u65e7\u6307\u5357\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4e16\u4ee3\u7279\u522b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5e94\u88ab\u660e\u786e\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8868\u793a\u5173\u5fc3\u5c31\u4efb\u610f\u6362\u7528\u66f4\u4f4e\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u63d0\u9192\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u5408\u9884\u671f\u65f6\u5077\u5077\u6539\u53d8\u53c2\u6570\u3002\u82e5\u4f26\u7406\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u6cd5\u7531\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u5c31\u5e94\u628a\u9650\u5236\u516c\u5f00\u5217\u4e3a\u51b3\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f2a\u88c5\u6210\u6570\u5b66\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u751f\u547d\u80fd\u591f\u8fdb\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u5f20\u73b0\u503c\u8868\u5417<\/h2>\n<p>\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u73af\u5883\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u652f\u51fa\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f5c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u62d2\u7edd\u6570\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u51b3\u5b9a\u66f4\u4efb\u610f\u3002\u82e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u9053\u8def\u6539\u9020\u80fd\u4ee5\u8f83\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u663e\u8457\u51cf\u5c11\u6b7b\u4ea1\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5176\u6548\u679c\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6240\u6709\u751f\u547d\u98ce\u9669\u90fd\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u4f30\u91cf\u201d\uff0c\u8d44\u6e90\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u800c\u6d41\u5411\u653f\u6cbb\u58f0\u97f3\u6700\u5927\u800c\u975e\u4fdd\u62a4\u6548\u679c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u5316\u4e4b\u540e\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u5ff5\u6ed1\u52a8\u3002\u652f\u4ed8\u610f\u613f\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u6536\u5165\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bcc\u88d5\u7fa4\u4f53\u80fd\u591f\u8868\u8fbe\u66f4\u9ad8\u91d1\u989d\uff1b\u5e73\u5747\u7edf\u8ba1\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u4efb\u4f55\u5177\u4f53\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u547d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8be5\u4ef7\u683c\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\u4e0e\u5730\u70b9\u8fd8\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4e00\u9879\u957f\u671f\u73af\u5883\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u751f\u547d\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u901a\u8fc7\u5e73\u5747\u8d27\u5e01\u503c\u4e58\u4eba\u6570\u518d\u6298\u73b0\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u5b8c\u6574\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u8981\u4e09\u5c42\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6570\u91cf\u5c42\u6bd4\u8f83\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5206\u914d\u5c42\u68c0\u67e5\u98ce\u9669\u7531\u8c01\u627f\u62c5\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8d2b\u56f0\u3001\u504f\u8fdc\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u6743\u5229\u4e0e\u9608\u503c\u5c42\u5219\u8be2\u95ee\u67d0\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u4fdd\u62a4\u662f\u5426\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u56e0\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u800c\u53d6\u6d88\u3002\u4e09\u5c42\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u51b2\u7a81\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u8bf4\u660e\u5982\u4f55\u53d6\u820d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u6216\u707e\u96be\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e\u3001\u635f\u5bb3\u5374\u8de8\u8d8a\u4e16\u4ee3\u4e14\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fee\u590d\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u9002\u5408\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u635f\u5931\u6298\u73b0\u540e\u8f7b\u6613\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u9700\u8981\u9884\u9632\u3001\u97e7\u6027\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u6570\u5df2\u7ecf\u5438\u6536\u5168\u90e8\u4f26\u7406\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u4f4e\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u4e5f\u6709\u4ee3\u4ef7<\/h2>\n<p>\u5bf9\u9ad8\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u6709\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u628a\u6bd4\u7387\u8bbe\u4e3a\u96f6\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4f7f\u51b3\u7b56\u81ea\u52a8\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u90fd\u4e0e\u4eca\u5929\u7b49\u6743\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u800c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0a\u538b\u5012\u73b0\u5b58\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u8981\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8d2b\u56f0\u8005\u4e3a\u6536\u76ca\u4e3b\u8981\u6d41\u5411\u66f4\u5bcc\u88d5\u540e\u4ee3\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4f5c\u51fa\u727a\u7272\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96f6\u6bd4\u7387\u8fd8\u5ffd\u7565\u8d44\u6e90\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u7528\u9014\u3002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f4e\u6548\u957f\u671f\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\u571f\u5730\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u4e0d\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u7528\u4e8e\u75ab\u82d7\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u6216\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u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7% \u8fd8\u662f 3.5%\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u5f02\u53ef\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u5176\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u5426\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8868\u683c\u4e2d\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u56e0\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u516c\u5e03\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u7f3a\u5e2d\u8005\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fa9\u62a4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6298\u73b0\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u672a\u6765\u53d8\u5c0f\u3002\u5b83\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u91c7\u53d6\u591a\u5c11\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd9\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5b83\u5e94\u6210\u4e3a\u516c\u5f00\u4e89\u8bba\u548c\u590d\u6838\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7559\u5728\u6280\u672f\u9644\u4ef6\u91cc\u66ff\u793e\u4f1a\u5b8c\u6210\u5c1a\u672a\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u6599\u4e0e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9605\u8bfb<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>HM Treasury, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-government\/the-green-book-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>The Green Book 2026<\/em><\/a>, especially the discounting guidance.<\/li>\n<li>HM Treasury, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/green-book-supplementary-guidance-discounting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Green Book supplementary guidance: discounting<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>HM Treasury, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/green-book-discount-rate-review-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Green Book discount rate review 2026<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Australian Government Office of Impact Analysis, <a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/resources\/cost-benefit-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Cost\u2013benefit analysis<\/em><\/a>, including the 2026 transition notice.<\/li>\n<li>Australian Government Office of Impact Analysis, <a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/resources\/guidance-assessing-impacts\/environmental-valuation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Environmental valuation and uncertainty<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u7cfb\u5217\u5bfc\u822a\uff1a<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/the-future-has-no-representative\/\">\u300a\u672a\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u603b\u89c8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains how changing social discount rates alters the present value of future lives and why discounting mixes empirical assumptions with ethical 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