{"id":16737,"date":"2026-09-17T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/?p=16737"},"modified":"2026-09-17T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T23:00:00","slug":"dna-99-9-percent-exclusion-not-guilt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/dna-99-9-percent-exclusion-not-guilt\/","title":{"rendered":"DNA\u8bc1\u636e\u6392\u966499.9%\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ecd\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u88ab\u544a\u670999.9%\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u7f6a\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><em>\u300a\u5f53\u6570\u5b57\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u300b\u00b7 \u7b2c\u4e94\u5b63\u201c\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u201d\u00b7 \u7b2c\u4e5d\u7bc7<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u4e00\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u542c\u6cd5<\/h2>\n<p>2012\u5e74\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u9ad8\u7b49\u6cd5\u9662\u5ba1\u7406<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hcourt.gov.au\/cases-and-judgments\/judgments\/judgments-1998-current\/aytugrul-v-queen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aytugrul v The Queen<\/a>\u3002\u6848\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u6839\u5934\u53d1\u5728\u6b7b\u8005\u6307\u7532\u4e0b\u88ab\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5176\u7ebf\u7c92\u4f53DNA\u578b\u4e0e\u88ab\u544a\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u8bc1\u636e\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u79cd\u8868\u8fbe\uff1a\u5927\u7ea6\u6bcf1,600\u4eba\u4e2d\u67091\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u62e5\u6709\u8be5\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ea699.9%\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u53e5\u8bdd\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u8868\u8fbe\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u9891\u7387\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u6548\u679c\u5374\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u201c1,600\u4eba\u4e2d1\u4eba\u201d\u63d0\u9192\u542c\u8005\u4ecd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5173\u4eba\u7fa4\uff1b\u201c\u6392\u966499.9%\u201d\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u5934\u8111\u4e2d\u88ab\u8865\u6210\u201c\u51e0\u4e4e\u80af\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u88ab\u544a\u201d\uff0c\u518d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d8\u6210\u201c\u51e0\u4e4e\u80af\u5b9a\u6709\u7f6a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u7b49\u6cd5\u9662\u5728\u8be5\u6848\u4e2d\u9a73\u56de\u4e0a\u8bc9\u3002\u591a\u6570\u7406\u7531\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5ba1\u5224\u4e2d\u540c\u65f6\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u9891\u7387\u4e0e\u6392\u9664\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5728\u5b8c\u6574\u8bc1\u636e\u8bed\u5883\u4e0b\u5e76\u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u9700\u8981\u6392\u9664\u8be5\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u504f\u89c1\u3002\u4f46\u5224\u51b3\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u91cf\u5316DNA\u610f\u89c1\u5e38\u5305\u542b\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u91ca\u5b83\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u548c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6848\u4ef6\u6ca1\u6709\u5ba3\u5e03\u201c99.9%\u7b49\u4e8e\u6709\u7f6a\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u663e\u793a\u6cd5\u9662\u5fc5\u987b\u7ba1\u7406\u6570\u5b57\u4ece\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u547d\u9898\u8df3\u5230\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u3001DNA\u7edf\u8ba1\u5148\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u75d5\u8ff9\u50cf\u4e0d\u50cf\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>\u6cd5\u8bc1DNA\u6bd4\u8f83\u901a\u5e38\u9762\u5bf9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u82e5\u75d5\u8ff9\u6765\u81ea\u88ab\u544a\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u8be5DNA\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5982\u4f55\uff1b\u82e5\u6765\u81ea\u4e00\u540d\u65e0\u5173\u8005\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u62a5\u544a\u5e38\u7528likelihood ratio\u8868\u8fbe\u6570\u636e\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6765\u6e90\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1bAytugrul\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u7ebf\u7c92\u4f53DNA\u5219\u4ee5\u4eba\u7fa4\u9891\u7387\u548c\u6392\u9664\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5448\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u9996\u5148\u662fsource-level evidence\uff1a\u8c01\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u751f\u7269\u6750\u6599\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u5211\u4e8b\u5ba1\u5224\u6700\u7ec8\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u5374\u662factivity\u548coffence\u5c42\u7ea7\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u75d5\u8ff9\u600e\u6837\u5230\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u88ab\u544a\u505a\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u63a7\u65b9\u662f\u5426\u6392\u9664\u5408\u7406\u6000\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u662fDNA\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5728\u72af\u7f6a\u65f6\u7559\u4e0b\uff1bDNA\u53ef\u7ecf\u65e0\u8f9c\u63a5\u89e6\u3001\u4e8c\u6b21\u8f6c\u79fb\u6216\u65e7\u75d5\u8ff9\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6df7\u5408\u6837\u672c\u3001\u964d\u89e3\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u6c61\u67d3\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6765\u6e90\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u6709\u7f6a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u3001\u5730\u70b9\u3001\u8bc1\u4eba\u3001\u52a8\u673a\u3001\u66ff\u4ee3\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8bc1\u636e\u8fde\u63a5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u524a\u5f31DNA\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u628a\u79d1\u5b66\u7559\u5728\u5b83\u771f\u6b63\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001\u68c0\u5bdf\u5b98\u8c2c\u8bef\u600e\u6837\u53d1\u751f<\/h2>\n<p>\u6240\u8c13prosecutor&#39;s fallacy\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u628a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5012\u8f6c\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u968f\u673a\u65e0\u5173\u8005\u4e0e\u75d5\u8ff9\u5339\u914d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u201c\u88ab\u544a\u65e0\u7f6a\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u5339\u914d\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u540c\u6837\u4f4e\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u201c\u88ab\u544a\u6709\u7f6a\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5176\u53cd\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6765\u6e90\u547d\u9898\u8fd8\u4f9d\u8d56\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u600e\u6837\u8fdb\u5165\u6848\u4ef6\u3002\u82e5\u8b66\u65b9\u5148\u56e0\u5176\u4ed6\u8bc1\u636e\u9501\u5b9a\u5acc\u7591\u4eba\uff0c\u518d\u6bd4\u8f83DNA\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0e\u5728\u5927\u578b\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u641c\u7d22\u540e\u547d\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u4eb2\u5c5e\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u65cf\u7fa4\u9891\u7387\u548c\u641c\u7d22\u8fc7\u7a0b\u90fd\u5f71\u54cd\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Aytugrul\u5c24\u5176\u63d0\u9192\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u53e3\u9891\u7387\u4e0e\u7279\u5b9a\u65cf\u7fa4\u8d44\u6599\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u540c\uff1b\u9ad8\u9662\u6848\u4ef6\u8d44\u6599\u8bb0\u8f7d\uff0c\u53e6\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u88ab\u544a\u6240\u5c5e\u65cf\u7fa4\u7ea62%\u53ef\u80fd\u5171\u4eab\u76f8\u5173\u578b\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c99.9%\u6392\u9664\u201d\u82e5\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u660e\u6240\u7528\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u548c\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u542c\u8005\u4f1a\u628a\u62bd\u8c61\u5168\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u5f53\u6210\u771f\u5b9e\u5019\u9009\u96c6\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u7684\u6709\u7f6a\u6982\u7387\u8fd8\u6d89\u53ca\u5148\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u3002DNA\u4e0d\u80fd\u72ec\u81ea\u544a\u8bc9\u966a\u5ba1\u56e2\uff0c\u88ab\u544a\u5728\u53d6\u6837\u524d\u4e3a\u4f55\u6210\u4e3a\u5acc\u7591\u4eba\u3001\u75d5\u8ff9\u662f\u5426\u4e0e\u72af\u7f6a\u65f6\u95f4\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8c01\u6709\u5408\u7406\u63a5\u89e6\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u6570\u5b57\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/h2>\n<p>DNA\u8bc1\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u652f\u6301\u8c03\u67e5\u3001\u6392\u9664\u5acc\u7591\u4eba\u3001\u7533\u8bf7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d6\u8bc1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u8bc1\u636e\u5171\u540c\u63d0\u4ea4\u5ba1\u5224\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u6392\u9664\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u80fd\u7ea0\u6b63\u51a4\u6848\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7528\u9014\u4e0d\u5e94\u56e0\u6982\u7387\u96be\u61c2\u800c\u88ab\u5426\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u4ece\u201c\u547d\u4e2d\u201d\u76f4\u63a5\u5230\u902e\u6355\u3001\u62d2\u7edd\u4fdd\u91ca\u6216\u5b9a\u7f6a\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u9010\u6b65\u52a0\u91cd\uff0c\u8bc1\u636e\u8981\u6c42\u4e5f\u5e94\u9010\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u641c\u7d22\u547d\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u6253\u5f00\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u81ea\u52a8\u5b8c\u6210\u8c03\u67e5\uff1b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u6765\u6e90likelihood ratio\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u53d6\u4ee3\u5bf9\u8f6c\u79fb\u548c\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5211\u4e8b\u8bc1\u660e\u6807\u51c6\u662fbeyond reasonable doubt\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002\u6cd5\u9662\u5fc5\u987b\u7efc\u5408\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u7531\u63a7\u65b9\u627f\u62c5\u8bc1\u660e\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u5b57\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e1,600\uff0c\u903b\u8f91\u754c\u9650\u4ecd\u76f8\u540c\uff1a\u5b83\u589e\u52a0\u67d0\u4e00\u8bc1\u636e\u547d\u9898\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u8ba1\u7b97\u6709\u7f6a\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u539f\u5219\u3002DNA\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u5728\u9002\u5f53\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u5f3a\u529b\u6392\u9664\u67d0\u4eba\uff1b\u5339\u914d\u5219\u901a\u5e38\u628a\u67d0\u4eba\u4fdd\u7559\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u6e90\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u6309\u7edf\u8ba1\u5f3a\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6392\u9664\u4e0e\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4e0d\u662f\u955c\u50cf\u52a8\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u8868\u8fbe\u65b9\u5f0f\u672c\u8eab\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u51b3\u5b9a<\/h2>\n<p>1\/1,000\u4e0e99.9%\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u5374\u4f1a\u5f15\u5bfc\u4e0d\u540c\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u524d\u8005\u628a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u653e\u5728\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u5171\u4eab\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u628a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u653e\u5728\u5e9e\u5927\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u4eba\u7fa4\u3002\u9ad8\u9662\u591a\u6570\u7406\u7531\u6b63\u9762\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u5411\u542c\u8005\u4f20\u9012\u4e0d\u540c\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u6570\u5b57\u5ba2\u89c2\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8868\u8fbe\u65e0\u5173\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u6cd5\u5ead\u4e2d\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6c9f\u901a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8bc1\u636e\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u62a5\u544a\u5e94\u8bf4\u660e\u547d\u9898\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u8bef\u5dee\u548c\u9650\u5236\uff1b\u6cd5\u5b98\u6307\u5f15\u5e94\u8b66\u544a\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5012\u8f6c\uff1b\u63a7\u8fa9\u53cc\u65b9\u5e94\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u6750\u6599\u4f9b\u72ec\u7acb\u4e13\u5bb6\u590d\u6838\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5b9c\u628a\u591a\u4e2a\u7b49\u4ef7\u6570\u5b57\u53e0\u52a0\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u8bc1\u636e\u4eff\u4f5b\u91cd\u590d\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u9891\u7387\u3001\u6392\u9664\u7387\u548clikelihood ratio\u82e5\u6765\u81ea\u540c\u4e00\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e09\u4efd\u72ec\u7acb\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u9519\u8bef\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6574\u6761\u94fe<\/h2>\n<p>DNA\u9519\u8bef\u4e0d\u53ea\u6709\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7b97\u9519\u201d\u3002\u73b0\u573a\u91c7\u96c6\u53ef\u80fd\u6c61\u67d3\u6216\u6807\u7b7e\u9519\u7f6e\uff0c\u8bc1\u7269\u4fdd\u7ba1\u94fe\u53ef\u80fd\u65ad\u88c2\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6df7\u5408\u7269\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f53\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u547d\u9898\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u6848\u4ef6\u95ee\u9898\u9519\u4f4d\uff0c\u6cd5\u5ead\u8bed\u8a00\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u8bef\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u590d\u6838\u5fc5\u987b\u80fd\u591f\u6cbf\u94fe\u56de\u6eaf\uff1a\u8c01\u5728\u4f55\u5904\u91c7\u96c6\uff0c\u600e\u6837\u5305\u88c5\u548c\u8f6c\u79fb\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u4f7f\u7528\u4f55\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u8d28\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u662f\u5426\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u539f\u59cb\u56fe\u8c31\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u5426\u4fdd\u5b58\uff0c\u9632\u65b9\u80fd\u5426\u53d6\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u8d44\u6599\u91cd\u505a\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u540e\u7eed\u53d1\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6c61\u67d3\u6216\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u7ea0\u9519\u4e0d\u5e94\u53ea\u5904\u7406\u4e0b\u4e00\u6848\u4ef6\u3002\u673a\u6784\u9700\u8981\u8bc6\u522b\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u65e7\u6848\u3001\u901a\u77e5\u5f53\u4e8b\u4eba\u3001\u4fdd\u5b58\u6837\u672c\u4f9b\u91cd\u9a8c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4e0a\u8bc9\u4e0e\u8d54\u507f\u63d0\u4f9b\u771f\u5b9e\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u88ab\u9519\u8bef\u5265\u593a\u540e\uff0c\u4fee\u6539\u62a5\u544a\u6587\u5b57\u5e76\u4e0d\u8db3\u591f\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e03\u3001\u7ef4\u6210\u8bba\uff1a\u6709\u529b\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6709\u9650\u77e5\u8bc6<\/h2>\n<p>DNA\u8bc1\u636e\u5728\u8eab\u4f53\u75d5\u8ff9\u3001\u91c7\u96c6\u7a0b\u5e8f\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u6cd5\u5ead\u547d\u9898\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u638c\u63e1\u4ece\u72af\u7f6a\u73b0\u573a\u5230\u966a\u5ba1\u56e2\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5374\u6709\u4e00\u9879\u77e5\u8bc6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8de8\u673a\u6784\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u8fd9\u662fKnowledge Without a Knower\u7684\u5178\u578b\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u7684\u5371\u9669\u4e0d\u662f\u6570\u5b57\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u5fd8\u8bb0\u81ea\u5df1\u53ea\u6709\u88ab\u59d4\u6258\u7684\u6709\u9650\u77e5\u6653\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u77e5\u9053\u6837\u672c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5b8c\u6574\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b\u8b66\u65b9\u77e5\u9053\u8c03\u67e5\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u4e0d\u51b3\u5b9a\u6709\u7f6a\uff1b\u966a\u5ba1\u56e2\u5224\u65ad\u6709\u7f6a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u6267\u884cDNA\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6743\u529b\u5fc5\u987b\u6cbf\u89d2\u8272\u5206\u5f00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Commitment as the Human Remainder\u8981\u6c42\u6cd5\u9662\u627f\u62c5\u6700\u540e\u7684\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u201c99.9%\u5df2\u7ecf\u66ff\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u201d\u3002\u8d8a\u5f3a\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u8d8a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4eba\u653e\u5f03\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u8d8a\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1aDNA\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f3a\u70c8\u652f\u6301\u6765\u6e90\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u72ec\u81ea\u8ba1\u7b97\u6709\u7f6a<\/h2>\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0cDNA\u7edf\u8ba1\u5e94\u4ee5\u6e05\u695a\u547d\u9898\u548clikelihood ratio\u6216\u9891\u7387\u5f62\u5f0f\u63d0\u4ea4\uff0c\u5e76\u5141\u8bb8\u4f7f\u7528\u6392\u9664\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u4f46\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u540c\u65f6\u89e3\u91ca\u5206\u6bcd\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u53ca\u4e0e\u6709\u7f6a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002Aytugrul\u4e0d\u5e94\u88ab\u8bef\u8bfb\u4e3a\u6cd5\u9662\u8ba4\u53ef\u752899.9%\u66ff\u4ee3\u6574\u4f53\u8bc1\u660e\uff1b\u5224\u51b3\u6210\u7acb\u4e8e\u5b8c\u6574\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cd5\u9662\u8fd8\u5e94\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u641c\u7d22\u3001\u6df7\u5408\u6837\u672c\u548c\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5206\u6790\u52a0\u5f3a\u72ec\u7acb\u590d\u6838\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u533a\u5206\u6765\u6e90\u3001\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u72af\u7f6a\u5c42\u7ea7\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5de8\u5927\u6bd4\u7387\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u627f\u62c5\u5176\u6d4b\u91cf\u80fd\u529b\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n<p>DNA\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6765\u81ea\u5b83\u80fd\u8ba9\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u88ab\u53ef\u9760\u6392\u9664\u3002\u5211\u4e8b\u6b63\u4e49\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u5219\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4e0d\u628a\u201c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u201d\u63d0\u524d\u5199\u6210\u201c\u5b9e\u65bd\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u6599<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>[High Court of Australia\uff1aAytugrul v The Queen [2012] HCA 15](<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hcourt.gov.au\/cases-and-judgments\/judgments\/judgments-1998-current\/aytugrul-v-queen\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/www.hcourt.gov.au\/cases-and-judgments\/judgments\/judgments-1998-current\/aytugrul-v-queen<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hcourt.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/eresources\/2012\/HCA\/15.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">High Court judgment\uff1aAytugrul v The Queen<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hcourt.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/assets\/publications\/speeches\/former-justices\/kirbyj\/kirbyj_dna.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">High Court of Australia\uff1aDNA Evidence\u2014Proceed with Care<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296282],"tags":[787296317,787296318,787296285,787296321,787296283,787296032,787296033,787296319],"class_list":["post-16737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-things-that-have-not-happened-yet","tag-dna-evidence","tag-dna-evidence-zh","tag-things-that-have-not-happened-yet-zh","tag-prosecutors-fallacy","tag-things-that-have-not-happened-yet","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions-zh","tag-prosecutors-fallacy-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"If DNA Evidence Excludes 99.9% of People, Why Is a Defendant Not 99.9% Likely to Be Guilty?","zh_CN":"DNA\u8bc1\u636e\u6392\u966499.9%\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ecd\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u88ab\u544a\u670999.9%\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u7f6a\uff1f"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1ar9H-4lX","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17897162"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16737"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20110,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16737\/revisions\/20110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}