{"id":16730,"date":"2026-09-13T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/?p=16730"},"modified":"2026-09-13T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T05:00:00","slug":"one-percent-aep-flood-twice-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/one-percent-aep-flood-twice-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201c\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u201d\u6d2a\u6c34\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u4e24\u6b21\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><em>\u300a\u5f53\u6570\u5b57\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u300b\u00b7 \u7b2c\u4e94\u5b63\u201c\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u201d\u00b7 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u7bc7<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u4e00\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65f6\u949f\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f52\u96f6<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e00\u5904\u57ce\u9547\u521a\u7ecf\u5386\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u201d\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u3002\u5c45\u6c11\u95ee\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u7ea6\u8981\u7b49\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\uff1f\u5f00\u53d1\u9879\u76ee\u662f\u5426\u56e0\u6b64\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u201c\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u201d\u662fAverage Recurrence Interval\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u6392\u671f\u8868\u3002\u6fb3\u6d32\u6d2a\u6c34\u7ba1\u7406\u73b0\u5728\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4f7f\u7528Annual Exceedance Probability\uff08AEP\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.environment.nsw.gov.au\/-\/media\/OEH\/Corporate-Site\/Documents\/Water\/Floodplains\/flood-risk-management-manual-220060.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u65b0\u5dde\u6d2a\u6c34\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u624b\u518c<\/a>\u628a1% AEP\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\uff1a\u67d0\u4e00\u89c4\u6a21\u6216\u66f4\u5927\u6d2a\u6c34\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5e74\u88ab\u8fbe\u5230\u6216\u8d85\u8fc7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a1%\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u964d\u4f4e\u660e\u5e74\u76841%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u628a\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\u6682\u65f6\u89c6\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u540c\u4e14\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u81f3\u5c11\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u6b211% AEP\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a9.6%\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u6b21\u7ea6\u4e3a0.43%\u3002\u540e\u8005\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u5374\u7edd\u975e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u628a\u65f6\u95f4\u62c9\u957f\u5230\u516b\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u6b21\u7ea6\u4e3a55%\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u6b21\u7ea6\u4e3a19%\u3002\u65b0\u5dde\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u8bf4\u660e\u6750\u6599\u4e5f\u4f7f\u7528\u540e\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5e2e\u52a9\u516c\u4f17\u7406\u89e3\u7ec8\u8eab\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u201d\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8bef\u89e3\uff0c\u662f\u628a\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u9891\u7387\u542c\u6210\u4e24\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u5fc5\u987b\u76f8\u9694\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e8e\u662f\u88ab\u8bef\u8bfb\u6210\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u30011%\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u6cb3\u6d41\u4e2d\u76f4\u63a5\u6d4b\u51fa\u7684\u8fb9\u754c<\/h2>\n<p>\u6d2a\u6c34\u6982\u7387\u6765\u81ea\u5386\u53f2\u964d\u96e8\u548c\u6c34\u4f4d\u8bb0\u5f55\u3001\u5730\u5f62\u3001\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\u3001\u571f\u58e4\u3001\u6cb3\u9053\u3001\u6392\u6c34\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c34\u6587\u548c\u6c34\u52a8\u529b\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u628a\u964d\u96e8\u8f6c\u6210\u6d41\u91cf\uff0c\u518d\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0d\u540c\u9891\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6c34\u6df1\u3001\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u8bb0\u5f55\u8f83\u77ed\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u5f00\u53d1\u6539\u53d8\u5f84\u6d41\u3001\u6cb3\u9053\u5de5\u7a0b\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c1%\u6d2a\u6c34\u7ebf\u201d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6cb3\u6d41\u5728\u5730\u9762\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u5929\u7136\u523b\u5ea6\u3002\u5730\u56fe\u9700\u8981\u628a\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6c34\u9762\u9ad8\u7a0b\u6295\u5f71\u5230\u5730\u5757\u8fb9\u754c\uff1b\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u3001\u5730\u9762\u6d4b\u91cf\u3001\u963b\u585e\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u8868\u793a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u7ebf\u79fb\u52a8\u3002\u9760\u8fd1\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u4e24\u680b\u623f\u5c4b\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u5dee\u51e0\u5398\u7c73\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u5f85\u9047\u5374\u53ef\u80fd\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0cAEP\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u67d0\u4e00\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u57fa\u51c6\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u82e5\u5f3a\u964d\u96e8\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u6216\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\u5f00\u53d1\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u6821\u51c6\u76841%\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u540c\u4e00\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fe\u5c42\u7684\u65e5\u671f\u548c\u60c5\u5883\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0e\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u5b57\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5171\u540c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6bd4\u8f83\u5824\u575d\u3001\u9053\u8def\u3001\u6392\u6c34\u548c\u4f4f\u5b85\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u628a\u6709\u9650\u8d44\u6e90\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u4e0d\u540c\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f461%\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u7ebf\u5916\u6ca1\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5236\u5ea6\u504f\u72311%<\/h2>\n<p>1% AEP\u5728\u6fb3\u6d32\u957f\u671f\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u4f4f\u5b85\u5f00\u53d1\u548c\u9632\u6d2a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u51c6\u3002\u5b83\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u5efa\u9020\u6210\u672c\u3001\u571f\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u884c\u653f\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u70b9\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u65b0\u5dde\u5730\u65b9\u89c4\u5212\u4f1a\u57281% AEP\u6c34\u4f4d\u4e0a\u518d\u52a0freeboard\uff0c\u4f8b\u59820.5\u7c73\uff0c\u5f62\u6210Flood Planning Level\u3002\u989d\u5916\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7528\u4e8e\u5bb9\u7eb3\u6ce2\u6d6a\u3001\u5c40\u90e8\u963b\u585e\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u8bef\u5dee\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bf4\u660e\u5236\u5ea6\u5e76\u4e0d\u771f\u6b63\u76f8\u4fe1\u6a21\u578b\u7ebf\u7edd\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u82e51%\u6c34\u4f4d\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u771f\u76f8\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5b89\u5168\u4f59\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c1%\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u89c4\u5212\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u65b0\u5dde\u7684Flood Risk Management Manual\u628aProbable Maximum Flood\u89c6\u4e3a\u754c\u5b9a\u6d2a\u6cdb\u5730\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6982\u5ff5\uff1b\u5dde\u89c4\u5212\u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7ba1\u7406\u8d85\u8fc71% AEP\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u6d89\u53ca\u758f\u6563\u3001\u5173\u952e\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u9ad8\u5371\u9669\u533a\u57df\u65f6\u3002\u533b\u9662\u3001\u517b\u8001\u8bbe\u65bd\u6216\u552f\u4e00\u758f\u6563\u9053\u8def\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u540e\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u673a\u68b0\u91c7\u7528\u666e\u901a\u4f4f\u5b85\u540c\u4e00\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u4f4d\u4e8e1%\u7ebf\u5916\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6ca1\u6709\u89e6\u53d1\u67d0\u9879\u5e38\u89c4\u5730\u576a\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6ca1\u6709\u6d2a\u6c34\u98ce\u9669\uff1b\u201c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7ebf\u5185\u201d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u5efa\u7b51\u5fc5\u7136\u88ab\u6df9\uff0c\u800c\u8868\u793a\u9700\u8981\u6309\u89c4\u5b9a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u4e00\u6761\u7ebf\u600e\u6837\u6539\u53d8\u571f\u5730<\/h2>\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u56fe\u5c42\u8fdb\u5165\u89c4\u5212\u8bc1\u4e66\u3001\u5f00\u53d1\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u6700\u4f4e\u5730\u576a\u3001\u8d37\u6b3e\u4e0e\u4fdd\u9669\u8d44\u6599\u540e\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5f00\u59cb\u6539\u53d8\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u5730\u5757\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u63d0\u9ad8\u697c\u677f\u3001\u4fdd\u7559\u6c34\u6d41\u901a\u9053\u3001\u9650\u5236\u7528\u9014\u6216\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e13\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u7528\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u98ce\u9669\u4fe1\u606f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u5fc5\u987b\u533a\u5206\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u6d2a\u6c34\u6a21\u578b\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e\u5730\u5f62\u5173\u7cfb\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5730\u65b9\u89c4\u5212\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2adefined flood event\u548cfreeboard\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u4eba\u3001\u94f6\u884c\u4e0e\u4e70\u5bb6\u518d\u6839\u636e\u5404\u81ea\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u51fa\u4ef7\u683c\u6216\u8d44\u683c\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u76f8\u4f3c\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f7f\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u9608\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u5c45\u6c11\u53ea\u6536\u5230\u201c\u4f60\u7684\u5730\u5757\u57281%\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u201d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u5730\u9762\u9ad8\u7a0b\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u7248\u672c\u3001\u6392\u6c34\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd8\u662f\u5730\u5757\u5c40\u90e8\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6765\u81ea\u6574\u6761\u94fe\uff0c\u800c\u7533\u8bc9\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u5bf9\u6700\u7ec8\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u7684\u989c\u8272\u5f00\u653e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u8fb9\u754c\u9644\u8fd1\u6700\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u91ca<\/h2>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u4e24\u5904\u76f8\u90bb\u4f4f\u5b85\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5730\u576a\u5dee2\u5398\u7c73\uff0c\u4e00\u5904\u843d\u5728\u7ebf\u5185\uff0c\u4e00\u5904\u5728\u7ebf\u5916\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u56f4\u5899\u3001\u8f66\u9053\u3001\u6392\u6c34\u53e3\u548c\u90bb\u8fd1\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc72\u5398\u7c73\uff1b\u5236\u5ea6\u5f85\u9047\u5374\u4f1a\u8dc3\u53d8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u53d6\u6d88\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u5145\u5206\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u8fb9\u7f18\u5ba1\u67e5\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u6548\u590d\u6838\u81f3\u5c11\u5e94\u5141\u8bb8\u4e1a\u4e3b\u53d6\u5f97\u6240\u7528\u6d2a\u6c34\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u7248\u672c\u3001\u5730\u9762\u6807\u9ad8\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001freeboard\u548c\u9002\u7528\u89c4\u5212\u6761\u6b3e\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u5408\u8d44\u683c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u63d0\u4ea4\u66f4\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u73b0\u573a\u8d44\u6599\u3002\u590d\u6838\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u201c\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u8981\u6c42\u653f\u5e9c\u6539\u56fe\u201d\uff1b\u65b0\u8d44\u6599\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u5165\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u6280\u672f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4f46\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee5\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u4e3a\u7531\u62d2\u7edd\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5730\u56fe\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u8fd8\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u65f6\u95f4\u516c\u5e73\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u65e7\u623f\u6309\u8fc7\u53bb\u6807\u51c6\u5408\u6cd5\u5efa\u6210\uff0c\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\u98ce\u9669\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7acb\u5373\u628a\u6240\u6709\u8d23\u4efb\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4e1a\u4e3b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u627f\u53d7\uff1b\u7ee7\u7eed\u9690\u85cf\u98ce\u9669\u53c8\u4f1a\u628a\u635f\u5931\u63a8\u7ed9\u672a\u6765\u4e70\u5bb6\u548c\u6551\u63f4\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5408\u7406\u505a\u6cd5\u5e94\u533a\u5206\u4fe1\u606f\u62ab\u9732\u3001\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9020\u3001\u516c\u5171\u51cf\u707e\u548c\u65b0\u5f00\u53d1\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba9\u4e00\u6761\u65b0\u7ebf\u4e00\u6b21\u5b8c\u6210\u5168\u90e8\u5206\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f7f\u201c\u91cd\u7b97\u201d\u6210\u4e3a\u5236\u5ea6\u4e49\u52a1<\/h2>\n<p>\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u662f\u5199\u5b8c\u5373\u6c38\u4e45\u6709\u6548\u3002\u96e8\u91cf\u8d44\u6599\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u51fa\u73b0\u3001\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\u6539\u53d8\u540e\uff0c\u9891\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u66f4\u65b0\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u539f\u6765\u6807\u4e3a1%\u7684\u6c34\u4f4d\u53d8\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5f62\u8d44\u6599\u800c\u7f29\u5c0f\u5c40\u90e8\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u516c\u4f17\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u53d8\u5316\u7406\u89e3\u6210\u201c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4ee5\u524d\u7b97\u9519\u4e86\u201d\u3002\u6709\u65f6\u786e\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7f3a\u9677\uff1b\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u6761\u4ef6\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u5236\u5ea6\u5e94\u4fdd\u5b58\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u8f93\u5165\u6539\u53d8\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4f9d\u8d56\u65e7\u56fe\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u5f00\u53d1\u51b3\u5b9a\u5236\u5b9a\u8fc7\u6e21\u5b89\u6392\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u7ea0\u9519\u4e0d\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e00\u5f20\u6c38\u4e0d\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u80fd\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u82e5\u4e00\u6b21\u6d2a\u6c34\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u758f\u6563\u8def\u7ebf\u3001\u963b\u585e\u5047\u8bbe\u6216\u5f31\u52bf\u7fa4\u4f53\u8d44\u6599\u7f3a\u5931\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u7248\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u89c4\u5212\u5fc5\u987b\u5438\u6536\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u8d85\u51fa\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\u53ea\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6bcf\u6b21\u707e\u540e\u514d\u9664\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e03\u3001\u7ef4\u6210\u8bba\uff1a\u6d2a\u6cdb\u533a\u662f\u88ab\u6784\u6210\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u7a7a\u95f4<\/h2>\n<p>\u6cb3\u6d41\u3001\u5730\u5f62\u3001\u5efa\u7b51\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u89c4\u5212\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5148\u5404\u81ea\u5b8c\u6574\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u624d\u88ab\u4e00\u6761\u7ebf\u8fde\u63a5\u3002\u5f00\u53d1\u6539\u53d8\u5f84\u6d41\uff0c\u5730\u56fe\u6539\u53d8\u5efa\u7b51\uff0c\u5efa\u7b51\u53c8\u6539\u53d8\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6d2a\u6c34\u3002\u6d2a\u6cdb\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u4e92\u7ea6\u675f\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1% AEP\u662f\u4e00\u79cdForced Structure\uff1a\u5236\u5ea6\u4e3a\u4e86\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u628a\u8fde\u7eed\u6982\u7387\u538b\u6210\u53ef\u753b\u3001\u53ef\u5ba1\u6279\u3001\u53ef\u65bd\u5de5\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u5f3a\u5236\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u4efb\u610f\u7ed3\u6784\uff1b\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u4e25\u8c28\u6a21\u578b\u652f\u6301\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6784\u662f\u5426\u8bb0\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5141\u8bb8\u65b0\u8bc1\u636e\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u628a\u7ebf\u5916\u98ce\u9669\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u53d8\u6210\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u3001\u8bae\u5458\u6216\u5c45\u6c11\u638c\u63e1\u6574\u4e2a\u96c6\u6c34\u533a\u672a\u6765\u3002\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u6563\u5728\u4eea\u5668\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u5730\u65b9\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u5e94\u6025\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u3002Knowledge Without a Knower\u8981\u6c42\u5236\u5ea6\u4fdd\u5b58\u8fd9\u6761\u8bc1\u636e\u94fe\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u53d1\u5e03\u6700\u7ec8\u8272\u5757\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4fdd\u75591%\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u4f46\u505c\u6b62\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u767e\u5e74\u5b89\u5168\u201d\u7684\u60f3\u8c61<\/h2>\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0c1% AEP\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f4f\u5b85\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u660e\u786efreeboard\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u7edf\u4e00\u6807\u51c6\u4f7f\u5de5\u7a0b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u516c\u5171\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u6d88\u95e8\u69db\u4f1a\u628a\u51b3\u5b9a\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u7684\u4e2a\u6848\u88c1\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f461%\u7ebf\u4e0d\u80fd\u72ec\u81ea\u51b3\u5b9a\u9ad8\u540e\u679c\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u758f\u6563\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u6240\u6709\u4fdd\u9669\u5224\u65ad\uff1b\u89c4\u5212\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u8d85\u8fc7\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fb9\u754c\u9644\u8fd1\u5e94\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a21\u578b\u8d44\u6599\u548c\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6838\uff0c\u5730\u56fe\u5fc5\u987b\u6807\u6ce8\u7248\u672c\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5e76\u5b9a\u671f\u91cd\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u6b211%\u6d2a\u6c34\u53d1\u751f\u540e\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\u949f\u6ca1\u6709\u5f52\u96f6\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u9700\u8981\u5f52\u96f6\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u201c\u5df2\u7ecf\u9047\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6682\u65f6\u5b89\u5168\u201d\u7684\u8bef\u89e3\u3002\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u4e0b\u4e00\u573a\u6d2a\u6c34\u7684\u65e5\u671f\uff1b\u5b83\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5728\u623f\u5c4b\u3001\u9053\u8def\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4f4e\u5e74\u5ea6\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u7d2f\u79ef\u6210\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u6599<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.environment.nsw.gov.au\/-\/media\/OEH\/Corporate-Site\/Documents\/Water\/Floodplains\/flood-risk-management-manual-220060.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NSW Government\uff1aFlood Risk Management Manual<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nsw.gov.au\/emergency\/floods\/prepare\/understand-your-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NSW Government\uff1aUnderstand the risk of floods in your area<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.planning.nsw.gov.au\/the-planning-system\/resilience-and-natural-hazard-risk\/flooding\/flood-prone-land-package\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NSW Planning\uff1aFlood-prone land package<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/arr.ga.gov.au\/arr-guideline\/revision-projects\/revision-project-reports\/project-20-risk-assessment-and-design-life\/ARR_Project_20_Stage3_Report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Australian Rainfall and Runoff\uff1aRisk assessment and design life<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296282],"tags":[787296289,787296285,787296292,787296283,787296032,787296290,787296033,787296291],"class_list":["post-16730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-things-that-have-not-happened-yet","tag-annual-exceedance-probability","tag-things-that-have-not-happened-yet-zh","tag-flood-risk","tag-things-that-have-not-happened-yet","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions","tag-annual-exceedance-probability-zh","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions-zh","tag-flood-risk-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Why 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