{"id":16727,"date":"2026-09-12T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/?p=16727"},"modified":"2026-09-12T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T23:00:00","slug":"discount-rate-7-percent-future-loss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/discount-rate-7-percent-future-loss\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e487%\u7684\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u4f1a\u8ba9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5931\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u53d8\u5c0f\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><em>\u300a\u5f53\u6570\u5b57\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u300b\u00b7 \u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u201c\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u201d\u00b7 \u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u7bc7<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u4e00\u3001\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u7684100\u4e07\uff0c\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u53ea\u5269\u591a\u5c11<\/h2>\n<p>\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e00\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u907f\u514d100\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\u635f\u5931\u3002\u82e5\u4f7f\u7528\u6bcf\u5e747%\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u672a\u6765\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u73b0\u503c\u7ea6\u4e3a13.1\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\uff1b\u75283%\uff0c\u7ea6\u4e3a41.2\u4e07\uff1b\u752810%\uff0c\u7ea6\u4e3a5.7\u4e07\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u53ea\u56e0\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5224\u65ad\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece\u503c\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\u53d8\u6210\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u90a6Office of Impact Analysis\uff08OIA\uff09\u7684\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u6307\u5357\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u57fa\u7840\u60c5\u5883\u901a\u5e38\u91c7\u75287%\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u5b9e\u9645\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee53%\u548c10%\u8fdb\u884c\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u3002\u82e5\u653f\u7b56\u8de8\u8d8a\u6781\u957f\u65f6\u671f\uff0cOIA\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u5bfc\u5efa\u8bae\u4f7f\u7528\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\uff1a\u524d30\u5e747%\uff0c31\u81f375\u5e745.4%\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8d34\u73b0\u5e38\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u6210\u201c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u94b1\u4e0d\u5982\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u94b1\u503c\u94b1\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u907f\u514d\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5d29\u6e83\u6216\u6c14\u5019\u4f24\u5bb3\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u201c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4eba\u91cd\u8981\u201d\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u7a76\u7adf\u6d4b\u91cf\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u53c8\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u65b9\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6743\u9650\uff1f<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u3001\u8d34\u73b0\u628a\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u4efd\u653e\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\u70b9<\/h2>\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e00\u767e\u4e07\u5143\u53ef\u4ee5\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4ea7\u751f\u56de\u62a5\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u82b1\u94b1\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u653e\u5f03\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u8fd8\u504f\u597d\u8f83\u65e9\u5f97\u5230\u6536\u76ca\u3001\u8f83\u665a\u627f\u62c5\u6210\u672c\uff1b\u672a\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8fd1\u671f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u4e3a\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3abase year\u7684present value\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u516c\u5f0f\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u73b0\u503c = \u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u503c \u00f7 (1 + \u8d34\u73b0\u7387)^\u5e74\u6570<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201c\u5b9e\u9645\u201d\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u6392\u9664\u4e00\u822c\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u6210\u672c\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u5e94\u4ee5\u4e00\u81f4\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u683c\u8868\u8fbe\u3002\u8d34\u73b0\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u4e00\u8fb9\u7528\u540d\u4e49\u91d1\u989d\u3001\u4e00\u8fb9\u7528\u5b9e\u9645\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5171\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u7528\u9014\u3002\u4e00\u9879\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u4eca\u5929\u6295\u5165\u5de8\u989d\u5efa\u8bbe\u8d39\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u9010\u6b65\u8282\u7701\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4e8b\u6545\uff1b\u4e0d\u8d34\u73b0\u4f1a\u628a\u9065\u8fdc\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u5373\u65f6\u6210\u672c\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u52a0\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u7528\u9014\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u9884\u7b97\u53c8\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6392\u65a5\u957f\u671f\u9884\u9632\u3002\u8d34\u73b0\u4f7f\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u5165\u8d26\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ece\u8d26\u672c\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6df7\u5408\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u8fd8\u88ab\u4e0d\u52a0\u533a\u5206\u5730\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u8d27\u5e01\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u73af\u5883\u3002\u5b83\u5e76\u975e\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u5e38\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u30017%\u4e0d\u662f\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u65ad\u70b9<\/h2>\n<p>OIA\u91c7\u75287%\u4f5c\u4e3a\u516c\u5171\u5f71\u54cd\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u5b9e\u9645\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5b83\u8ba9\u4e0d\u540c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u53ef\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u5206\u6790\u8005\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u504f\u597d\u9879\u76ee\u901a\u8fc7\u800c\u81ea\u884c\u6311\u9009\u6700\u6709\u5229\u7684\u7387\u30023%\u4e0e10%\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u5219\u627f\u8ba4\u201c\u6b63\u786e\u201d\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7edf\u4e00\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u90fd\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u5408\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u7531\u79c1\u4eba\u8d44\u672c\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5546\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4e0e\u4fdd\u62a4\u6570\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u6e7f\u5730\u3001\u6838\u5e9f\u6599\u7ba1\u7406\u6216\u6c14\u5019\u9002\u5e94\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u9ad8\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u5408\u7406\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u672c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8de8\u8d8a\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u540e\u5374\u4f1a\u628a\u5de8\u5927\u672a\u6765\u635f\u5931\u538b\u5f97\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6309\u56fa\u5b9a7%\u8d34\u73b0\uff0c\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u540e\u7684100\u4e07\u6fb3\u5143\u73b0\u503c\u4e0d\u52301,200\u6fb3\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u8fd0\u7b97\uff0c\u5374\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u4ee3\u9645\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u8868\u8fbe\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u957f\u671f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7387\u5bf9\u9065\u8fdc\u672a\u6765\u6781\u654f\u611f\uff0cOIA\u73af\u5883\u6307\u5bfc\u5bf9\u8d85\u8fc730\u5e74\u7684\u5206\u6790\u91c7\u7528\u9012\u51cf\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9012\u51cf\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4f26\u7406\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u627f\u8ba4\u957f\u671f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3001\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u504f\u597d\u66f4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e2a\u77ed\u671f\u4e2d\u592e\u7387\u65e0\u9650\u5ef6\u4f38\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u672a\u6765\u7684\u94b1\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4eba<\/h2>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u662f\u672a\u6765\u7ef4\u4fee\u8d39\uff0c\u8d34\u73b0\u4e3b\u8981\u5904\u7406\u8d44\u6e90\u8de8\u671f\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u82e5\u5206\u6790\u628a\u7edf\u8ba1\u751f\u547d\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u5065\u5eb7QALY\u6216\u751f\u6001\u635f\u5931\u4e5f\u6309\u540c\u4e00\u7387\u8d34\u73b0\uff0c\u6570\u5b57\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4e0d\u540c\u4e16\u4ee3\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u8fa9\u62a4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5bcc\u88d5\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u5143\u635f\u5931\u5360\u5176\u8d44\u6e90\u6bd4\u4f8b\u66f4\u5c0f\uff1b\u63d0\u524d\u6295\u8d44\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u540e\u4ee3\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u53cd\u65b9\u5219\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u4e0d\u80fd\u9009\u62e9\u62d2\u7edd\u6211\u4eec\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u672c\u8eab\u53d7\u751f\u6001\u7a33\u5b9a\u5236\u7ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u952e\u533a\u522b\u662f\uff1a<strong>\u8d34\u73b0\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7b49\u4e8e\u8d34\u73b0\u9053\u5fb7\u5730\u4f4d<\/strong>\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u4e3a\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u7ef4\u4fee\u9884\u7559\u591a\u5c11\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u5426\u5141\u8bb8\u9020\u6210\u4e00\u9879\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u56e0\u8d54\u507f\u73b0\u503c\u5f88\u5c0f\u4fbf\u81ea\u52a8\u6279\u51c6\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u6743\u5229\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5e95\u7ebf\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6807\u51c6\u5e94\u5148\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u5185\u7684\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u6210\u672c\u6536\u76ca\u624d\u8fdb\u5165\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u6240\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u90fd\u5148\u8d27\u5e01\u5316\u518d\u8d34\u73b0\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u8f6c\u6362\u4f1a\u53e0\u52a0\uff1a\u5148\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u6761\u751f\u547d\u3001\u4e00\u7247\u6816\u606f\u5730\u6216\u4e00\u5428\u78b3\u503c\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u7248\u672c\u53ea\u7b97\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u51e0\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u89c4\u8303\u9009\u62e9\u90fd\u5e94\u5355\u72ec\u516c\u5f00\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u600e\u6837\u6539\u53d8\u9879\u76ee\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/h2>\n<p>\u9ad8\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u504f\u597d\u6536\u76ca\u8f83\u65e9\u3001\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u665a\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u7ef4\u62a4\u8d39\u7528\u843d\u5728\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u73b0\u503c\u88ab\u538b\u4f4e\uff0c\u5efa\u8bbe\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u9009\u62e9\u521d\u59cb\u4fbf\u5b9c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff1b\u73af\u5883\u4fee\u590d\u6536\u76ca\u9700\u8981\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u5904\u4e8e\u52a3\u52bf\u3002\u4f4e\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u5219\u63d0\u9ad8\u957f\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eca\u5929\u6295\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u8fdc\u671f\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u6324\u538b\u5f53\u524d\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6307\u6807\u56e0\u800c\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u5851\u9020\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u9879\u76ee\u56e2\u961f\u77e5\u9053\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u51b3\u5b9a\u6279\u51c6\uff0c\u4f1a\u8c03\u6574\u5206\u6790\u5e74\u9650\u3001\u628a\u6536\u76ca\u524d\u7f6e\u3001\u628a\u6210\u672c\u5ef6\u540e\uff0c\u6216\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u6709\u5229\u7684\u9000\u5f79\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u9020\u5047\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u8fb9\u754c\u4e5f\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OIA\u8981\u6c42\u5206\u6790\u6e05\u695abaseline\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u6b8b\u503c\u3001\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u654f\u611f\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c3%\u30017%\u4e0e10%\u4f7f\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u7b26\u53f7\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u6307\u5357\u8981\u6c42\u7a81\u51fa\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u8868\u793a\u7ed3\u8bba\u4f9d\u8d56\u7387\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\u6700\u4e0d\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u5199\u6cd5\u662f\u53ea\u62a5\u544a7%\u4e0b\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u603b\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u9879\u76ee\u201c\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e0a\u201d\u4e0d\u5212\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u6709\u7528\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4e34\u754c\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u5347\u5230\u591a\u5c11\u65f6\u9879\u76ee\u7531\u6b63\u8f6c\u8d1f\uff1f\u54ea\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u6700\u8fdf\u51fa\u73b0\uff1f\u82e5\u5ef6\u8fdf\u4e94\u5e74\u6216\u6210\u672c\u8d85\u652f\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u600e\u6837\uff1f\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7531\u6b64\u770b\u89c1\u81ea\u5df1\u771f\u6b63\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0d\u80fd\u5168\u90e8\u85cf\u8fdb\u66f4\u9ad8\u8d34\u73b0\u7387<\/h2>\n<p>\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u9009\u62e9\u66f4\u9ad8\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u628a\u5931\u8d25\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u538b\u4f4e\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u590d\u8ba1\u7b97\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u5df2\u7ecf\u6309\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u53c8\u7528\u9ad8\u7387\u518d\u6b21\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u98ce\u9669\u7ed3\u6784\u88ab\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u906e\u853d\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u95ee\u9898\u6765\u81ea\u6280\u672f\u5931\u8d25\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8fd8\u662f\u6267\u884c\u5ef6\u8fdf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5408\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u628a\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u653e\u5165\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u6982\u7387\uff1a\u5206\u522b\u4f30\u8ba1\u6210\u672c\u3001\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u6548\u679c\u548c\u5931\u8d25\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u4e3b\u8981\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u65e0\u6cd5\u53ef\u9760\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u4f7f\u7528\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u65b9\u6848\u548c\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u610f\u589e\u52a0\u51e0\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u5b9e\u7269\u671f\u6743\u7684\u601d\u8def\u4e5f\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\uff1a\u4eca\u5929\u4fdd\u7559\u672a\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u80fd\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u7acb\u5373\u6e05\u9664\u6816\u606f\u5730\u4e4b\u540e\u65e0\u6cd5\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u6062\u590d\u539f\u72b6\uff1b\u5ef6\u540e\u6216\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u5f00\u53d1\u53ef\u80fd\u5141\u8bb8\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u82e5\u53ea\u6bd4\u8f83\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u9057\u6f0f\u201c\u4fdd\u7559\u53ef\u4fee\u6b63\u6027\u201d\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e03\u3001\u8c01\u53ef\u4ee5\u6311\u6218\u8d34\u73b0\u7387<\/h2>\n<p>\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u62a5\u544a\u5e94\u516c\u5e03\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6216\u540d\u4e49\u7387\u3001base year\u3001\u4ef7\u683c\u5e74\u5ea6\u3001\u5206\u6790\u671f\u9650\u3001\u7ec8\u503c\u548c\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u8bfb\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u7b97\u3002\u8de8\u90e8\u95e8\u9879\u76ee\u82e5\u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u7387\uff0c\u5e94\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4f55\u5176\u878d\u8d44\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u65f6\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\u6784\u6210\u6b63\u5f53\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u8bf4\u660e\u201c\u884c\u4e1a\u60ef\u4f8b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u590d\u6838\u8fd8\u5e94\u95ee\u5206\u5e03\uff1a\u672a\u6765\u6210\u672c\u7531\u8c01\u627f\u62c5\uff1f\u4eca\u5929\u6536\u76ca\u7ed9\u8c01\uff1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u603b\u4f53\u6b63\u51c0\u73b0\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u5f53\u524d\u4f01\u4e1a\u83b7\u76ca\u3001\u672a\u6765\u793e\u533a\u4ed8\u8d39\u3002\u8d34\u73b0\u540e\u7684\u603b\u989d\u4e0d\u80fd\u62b5\u6d88\u4ee3\u9645\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u5206\u914d\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9879\u76ee\u5b9e\u65bd\u540e\u4e5f\u8981\u56de\u8bfb\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u6210\u672c\u3001\u7ef4\u62a4\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u73af\u5883\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u504f\u79bb\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u540c\u7c7b\u9879\u76ee\u957f\u671f\u4f4e\u4f30\u8fdc\u671f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u4fee\u6539\u9ed8\u8ba4\u503c\u6216\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5426\u5219\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u90fd\u4ee5\u201c\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u4f73\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u514d\u8d23\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516b\u3001\u7ef4\u6210\u8bba\uff1a\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u73b0\u5728<\/h2>\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u627f\u8bfa\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u673a\u4f1a\u3001\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u751f\u6001\u7ea6\u675f\u548c\u540e\u4ee3\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u538b\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u8f6c\u6362\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u6765\u5168\u8c8c\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u4ecd\u80fd\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cdForced Structure\uff0c\u4e5f\u662fDelegated Knowing\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u7684\u5371\u9669\u662f\u628a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u8bef\u5199\u6210\u8f83\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u672a\u6765\u3002\u516c\u5f0f\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u7684\u73b0\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u540e\u4ee3\u5e94\u5f97\u5230\u591a\u5c11\u9053\u5fb7\u5173\u6000\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u65e0\u6cd5\u51fa\u5e2d\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u54a8\u8be2\uff0c\u6570\u5b57\u66f4\u5e94\u4fdd\u5b58\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e0\u4eba\u7533\u8bc9\u4fbf\u964d\u4f4e\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Commitment as the Human Remainder\u8981\u6c42\u51b3\u5b9a\u8005\u660e\u786e\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4f55\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7387\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u5e95\u7ebf\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u8d34\u73b0\uff0c\u82e5\u4f4e\u7387\u60c5\u5883\u6539\u53d8\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ecd\u9009\u62e9\u5f53\u524d\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u628a\u51b3\u5b9a\u7b7e\u5728\u201c7%\u201d\u540d\u4e0b\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u9003\u907f\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u8d34\u73b0\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8981\u8d34\u73b0\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8d23\u4efb<\/h2>\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u5e94\u4fdd\u7559\u7edf\u4e00\u4e2d\u592e\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u53ca3%\u300110%\u7b49\u654f\u611f\u6027\u60c5\u5883\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5171\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u9879\u76ee\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u81f4\u6bd4\u8f83\uff1b\u5206\u6790\u8005\u81ea\u7531\u9009\u7387\u4e5f\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u64cd\u7eb5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8d85\u8fc730\u5e74\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u4ee3\u9645\u9879\u76ee\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u9012\u51cf\u7387\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u5b8c\u6574\u5448\u73b0\u4f4e\u7387\u60c5\u5883\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u751f\u547d\u6743\u5229\u3001\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u751f\u6001\u635f\u5931\u548c\u6700\u4f4e\u5b89\u5168\u4e49\u52a1\u5e94\u5148\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u73b0\u503c\u53d8\u5c0f\u4fbf\u7531\u5f53\u524d\u6536\u76ca\u81ea\u52a8\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u98ce\u9669\u5e94\u5728\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u5168\u585e\u8fdb\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u9ad8\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>7%\u80fd\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u5728\u8fd9\u5957\u516c\u5171\u5206\u6790\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u8d44\u6e90\u6298\u5408\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u201d\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4eba\u503c\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u627f\u62c5\u591a\u5c11\u201d\u3002\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5fc5\u987b\u7531\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u516c\u5f00\u627f\u62c5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ea4\u7ed9\u6307\u6570\u51fd\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u6599<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-07\/cost-benefit-analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Office of Impact Analysis\uff1aCost Benefit Analysis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/resources\/guidance-assessing-impacts\/environmental-valuation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Office of Impact Analysis\uff1aEnvironmental valuation<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/oia.pmc.gov.au\/resources\/value-statistical-life\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Office of Impact Analysis\uff1aValue of statistical life<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296231],"tags":[787296274,787296275,787296277,787296232,787296032,787296033,787296235,787296276],"class_list":["post-16727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-things-that-cannot-be-priced-directly","tag-discount-rates","tag-discount-rates-zh","tag-intergenerational-equity","tag-things-that-cannot-be-priced-directly","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions-zh","tag-things-that-cannot-be-priced-directly-zh","tag-intergenerational-equity-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Why 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