{"id":16677,"date":"2026-08-16T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/?p=16677"},"modified":"2026-08-16T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T23:00:00","slug":"global-warming-15c-science-political-commitment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/global-warming-15c-science-political-commitment\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e291.5\u00b0C\u662f\u4e00\u9053\u81ea\u7136\u60ac\u5d16\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u653f\u6cbb\u627f\u8bfa\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><em>\u300a\u5f53\u6570\u5b57\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u300b\u00b7 \u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u201c\u95e8\u69db\u7ebf\u4e24\u8fb9\u7684\u4eba\u201d\u00b7 \u7b2c\u4e5d\u7bc7<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u4e00\u30012024\u5e74\u8d85\u8fc71.5\u00b0C\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u5417\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u786e\u8ba4\uff0c2024\u5e74\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u8fd1\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u6c34\u5e731.5\u00b0C\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u65e5\u5386\u5e74\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5347\u5e45\u7ea6\u4e3a1.55\u00b0C\uff0c\u5e26\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u8303\u56f4\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-report-documents-spiralling-weather-and-climate-impacts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WMO\uff1a\u300aState of the Global Climate 2024\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u65b0\u95fb\u6807\u9898\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u5199\u6210\uff1a\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u5df2\u7ecf\u7a81\u78341.5\u00b0C\u7ea2\u7ebf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c1.5\u00b0C\u662f\u4e00\u9053\u81ea\u7136\u60ac\u5d16\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8de8\u8fc7\u4ee5\u540e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u76ee\u6807\u5df2\u7ecf\u6c38\u4e45\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u8fdb\u5165\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u5916\u4ea4\u53e3\u53f7\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5355\u5e74\u8d85\u8fc7\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53c8\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e24\u79cd\u7406\u89e3\u90fd\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u4e2d\u76841.5\u00b0C\u6307\u957f\u671f\u5347\u6e29\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u5728\u8f83\u957f\u65f6\u6bb5\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u7ea6\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4e0a\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u5355\u72ec\u4e00\u4e2a\u708e\u70ed\u5e74\u4efd\u53d7\u957f\u671f\u4eba\u4e3a\u53d8\u6696\u4e0eEl Ni\u00f1o\u7b49\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u7387\u5171\u540c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u72ec\u81ea\u8bc1\u660e\u957f\u671f\u95e8\u69db\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d8a\u8fc7\u3002WMO\u540c\u65f6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/news\/new-report-suggests-more-global-temperature-records-ahead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WMO\uff1a\u300aGlobal Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026\u20132030\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c2024\u5e74\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u566a\u58f0\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u58f0\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e00\u5207\u52aa\u529b\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u7ec8\u573a\u54e8\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u30011.5\u00b0C\u7a76\u7adf\u6d4b\u91cf\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6bcf\u5929\u6c14\u6e29\u6bd4\u8fc7\u53bb\u9ad81.5\u00b0C\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e1850\u81f31900\u5e74\u57fa\u51c6\u671f\u7684\u957f\u671f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u628a\u9646\u5730\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u5357\u5317\u534a\u7403\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u538b\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u5206\u5e03\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e73\u5747\uff1a\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u70ed\u6d6a\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u706b\u9669\u4e5f\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>IPCC\u4f7f\u7528global warming level\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u5347\u6e29\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5355\u5e74\u53ef\u4ee5\u6682\u65f6\u8d85\u8fc71.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u4f46IPCC\u6240\u8bf4\u76841.5\u00b0C\u957f\u671f\u6c34\u5e73\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4ece\u81ea\u7136\u5e74\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u4eba\u4e3a\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg2\/chapter\/chapter-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IPCC\uff1a\u300aClimate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Chapter 1\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6d4b\u91cf\u4ecd\u5305\u542b\u9009\u62e9\uff1a\u57fa\u51c6\u671f\u5982\u4f55\u786e\u5b9a\u3001\u4f7f\u7528\u54ea\u4e9b\u6e29\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u3001\u600e\u6837\u8986\u76d6\u8d44\u6599\u7a00\u5c11\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u957f\u671f\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u6743\u5a01\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u7565\u6709\u5dee\u522b\u7684\u5355\u5e74\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u8868\u793a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u53ea\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u793a\u5168\u7403\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u7531\u89c2\u6d4b\u3001\u6821\u6b63\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u5171\u540c\u5efa\u6210\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u30011.5\u00b0C\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u4e34\u754c\u70b9<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u4f1a\u57281.49\u00b0C\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3001\u52301.50\u00b0C\u540c\u65f6\u542f\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u540c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u654f\u611f\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u73ca\u745a\u7901\u3001\u51b0\u76d6\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u548c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u66f2\u7ebf\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff1b\u90e8\u5206\u53d8\u5316\u8f83\u5e73\u6ed1\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u4e34\u754c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51c6\u786e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>IPCC\u6700\u660e\u786e\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u662f\uff1a\u6bcf\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u70b9\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u591a\u79cd\u5e76\u53d1\u5371\u9669\u3002\u8f83\u9ad8\u5347\u6e29\u8fd8\u4f1a\u4f7f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0e\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u9762\u5bf9\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3001\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/summary-for-policymakers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IPCC\uff1a\u300aAR6 Synthesis Report\u2014Summary for Policymakers\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece1.49\u52301.50\u4e0d\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\u540c\u65f6\u8dcc\u843d\u7684\u60ac\u5d16\uff1b\u4ece1.50\u52301.51\u4e5f\u7edd\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u65e0\u6240\u8c13\u3002\u628a1.5\u770b\u6210\u552f\u4e00\u60ac\u5d16\uff0c\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e24\u79cd\u5371\u9669\u8bef\u89e3\uff1a\u8d8a\u7ebf\u524d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e00\u5207\u5c1a\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u8d8a\u7ebf\u540e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u51cf\u6392\u90fd\u5df2\u6ca1\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79d1\u5b66\u771f\u6b63\u652f\u6301\u7684\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u9012\u589e\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u9650\u5236\u57281.5\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u6d88\u9664\u5168\u90e8\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5374\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u66f4\u9ad8\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u989d\u5916\u98ce\u9669\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u53d1\u751f\u6682\u65f6overshoot\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e25\u91cd\u540e\u679c\u4e0e\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u3001\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u6cbb\u5fc5\u987b\u9009\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u72ec\u81ea\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u613f\u610f\u63a5\u53d7\u591a\u5c11\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u7531\u8c01\u51cf\u6392\u3001\u8c01\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u91d1\u4ee5\u53ca\u53d1\u5c55\u673a\u4f1a\u600e\u6837\u5206\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761\u628a\u5171\u540c\u76ee\u6807\u5199\u6210\uff1a\u628a\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u5347\u6e29\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e2\u00b0C\uff0c\u5e76\u52aa\u529b\u9650\u5236\u57281.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u627f\u8ba4\u8fd9\u5c06\u663e\u8457\u51cf\u5c11\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/sites\/default\/files\/resource\/parisagreement_publication.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UNFCCC\uff1a\u300aParis Agreement\u300b<\/a><\/p>\n<p>1.5\u00b0C\u56e0\u6b64\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u7531\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc1\u636e\u652f\u6491\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u5b89\u5168\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5404\u56fd\u968f\u610f\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6f02\u4eae\u6574\u6570\u3002\u5b83\u628a\u4e0d\u540c\u98ce\u9669\u7814\u7a76\u8f6c\u6362\u6210\u5171\u540c\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u8ba9\u8fd1\u4e24\u767e\u4e2a\u7f14\u7ea6\u65b9\u80fd\u591f\u53cd\u63a8\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d21\u732e\u3001\u51c0\u96f6\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u878d\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u6709\u5171\u540c\u6e29\u5ea6\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u4ecd\u53ef\u627f\u8bfa\u201c\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u6392\u201d\uff0c\u5374\u5f88\u96be\u5224\u65ad\u6240\u6709\u627f\u8bfa\u52a0\u603b\u540e\u662f\u5426\u4e0e\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c14\u5019\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u5bb9\u3002\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u662f\u534f\u8c03\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5171\u540c\u76ee\u6807\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u52a8\u5206\u914d\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u6392\u653e\u3001\u5f53\u524d\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u9700\u8981\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u653f\u6cbb\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u4ee5\u516c\u5e73\u4ee5\u53ca\u5171\u540c\u4f46\u6709\u533a\u522b\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u548c\u5404\u81ea\u80fd\u529b\u4e3a\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u6570\u5b57\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e94\u627f\u62c5\u76f8\u540c\u4efd\u989d\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001\u8d8a\u8fc71.5\u00b0C\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u89e6\u53d1\u4ec0\u4e48\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u5f00\u5173\u4f1a\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u8fbe\u52301.500\u65f6\u81ea\u52a8\u5173\u95ed\u7164\u77ff\u3001\u5904\u7f5a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u542f\u52a8\u8d54\u507f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u8981\u6c42\u7f14\u7ea6\u65b9\u51c6\u5907\u3001\u6c9f\u901a\u548c\u7ef4\u6301\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u63d0\u9ad8\u52aa\u529b\uff1b\u5b83\u8fd8\u5efa\u7acb\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u3001\u62a5\u544a\u4e0eglobal 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stocktake\u68c0\u67e5\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u591f\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u51b3\u5b9a\u5177\u4f53\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0e\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u6570\u5b57\u6ca1\u6709\u72ec\u7acb\u6267\u884c\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6765\u81ea\u5404\u56fd\u613f\u610f\u8ba9\u9884\u7b97\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u6cd5\u89c4\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u9879\u76ee\u6807\u7ea6\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u5982\u679c\u957f\u671f\u8d8a\u7ebf\uff0c1.5\u00b0C\u8fd8\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u5417\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u6709\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u610f\u4e49\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8d8a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c1.5\u00b0C\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u9650\u5236\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u51cf\u7f13\u76ee\u6807\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u957f\u671f\u8d85\u8d8a\uff0c\u5b83\u540c\u65f6\u6210\u4e3a\u8861\u91cfovershoot\u5e45\u5ea6\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u8fd4\u56de\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u3002\u66f4\u5feb\u51cf\u5c11\u6392\u653e\u4ecd\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u5cf0\u503c\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u7f29\u77ed\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u66b4\u9732\uff0c\u5e76\u51cf\u5c11\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u54112\u00b0C\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c06\u76ee\u6807\u5ba3\u5e03\u201c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u201d\u4f1a\u628a\u4e00\u6761\u534f\u8c03\u7ebf\u53d8\u6210\u653e\u5f03\u7406\u7531\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u5047\u88c5\u5355\u5e74\u548c\u957f\u671f\u8d85\u8d8a\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u516c\u5171\u4fe1\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7ea0\u9519\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u662f\u4fee\u6539\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u8ba9\u76ee\u6807\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4ecd\u7136\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u516c\u5f00\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4f7f\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u57fa\u51c6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7a97\u53e3\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5f53\u524d\u5355\u5e74\u3001\u5341\u5e74\u548c\u957f\u671f\u4f30\u8ba1\u5206\u522b\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u8303\u56f4\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5404\u56fd\u627f\u8bfa\u52a0\u603b\u5bf9\u5e94\u4ec0\u4e48\u5347\u6e29\u8def\u5f84\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u8d85\u8d8a\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u54ea\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u51cf\u7f13\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u635f\u5931\u635f\u5bb3\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u600e\u6837\u76f8\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u76d8\u70b9\u6b63\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u590d\u6838\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u5141\u8bb8\u4e2a\u4eba\u201c\u7533\u8bc9\u201d\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u5374\u8981\u6c42\u5236\u5ea6\u5b9a\u671f\u6bd4\u8f83\u5171\u540c\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a1.5\u00b0C\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u65ad\u5d16\uff0c\u5374\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u4e0d\u80fd\u968f\u610f\u653e\u5f03\u7684\u516c\u5171\u754c\u7ebf<\/h2>\n<p>1.5\u00b0C\u540c\u65f6\u5c5e\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u4f46\u4e24\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79d1\u5b66\u7528\u5b83\u6bd4\u8f83\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u663e\u793a1.5\u00b0C\u4e16\u754c\u4e0e2\u00b0C\u4e16\u754c\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u9192\u6bcf\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5347\u6e29\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u540e\u679c\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7528\u5b83\u534f\u8c03\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u628a\u65e0\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u6392\u653e\u9009\u62e9\u6307\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6700\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>1.5\u00b0C\u4e0d\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u4ece\u96f6\u8df3\u5230\u4e00\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u60ac\u5d16\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u4f9d\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u98ce\u9669\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u5168\u7403\u653f\u6cbb\u627f\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u5b83\u7684\u975e\u81ea\u7136\u6027\u4e0d\u524a\u5f31\u5b83\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8bf4\u660e\u8d23\u4efb\u6240\u5728\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u66ff\u4eba\u7c7b\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u66ff\u5404\u56fd\u5206\u914d\u51cf\u6392\u4e49\u52a1\u3002\u754c\u7ebf\u662f\u4eba\u753b\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u4e16\u754c\u63a5\u8fd1\u751a\u81f3\u6682\u65f6\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6761\u7ebf\uff0c\u6b63\u786e\u56de\u5e94\u4e0d\u662f\u4e89\u8bba\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u201c\u6b63\u5f0f\u8d8a\u8fc7\u201d\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u505c\u6b62\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f7f\u6d4b\u91cf\u66f4\u900f\u660e\u3001\u627f\u8bfa\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\uff0c\u5e76\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff1a1.6\u00b0C\u4ecd\u6bd42\u00b0C\u5c11\u4e00\u4e9b\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c1.7\u00b0C\u4ecd\u6bd42.5\u00b0C\u4fdd\u7559\u66f4\u591a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e0d\u5e94\u6210\u4e3a\u672b\u65e5\u5012\u8ba1\u65f6\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u6210\u4e3a\u6301\u7eed\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u5750\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3b\u8981\u8d44\u6599<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/sites\/default\/files\/resource\/parisagreement_publication.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UNFCCC\uff1aParis Agreement<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UNFCCC\uff1aThe Paris Agreement<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/summary-for-policymakers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IPCC\uff1aAR6 Synthesis Report\u2014Summary for Policymakers<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg2\/chapter\/chapter-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IPCC\uff1aClimate Change 2022\u2014Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Chapter 1<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-report-documents-spiralling-weather-and-climate-impacts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WMO\uff1aState of the Global Climate 2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/news\/new-report-suggests-more-global-temperature-records-ahead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WMO\uff1aGlobal Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026\u20132030<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains why 1.5\u00b0C is not a natural cliff or a single-year verdict, but a Paris political coordination target tied to long-term risk and action.","_geoff_meta_description_zh":"\u9610\u660e1.5\u00b0C\u5e76\u975e\u81ea\u7136\u65ad\u5d16\u6216\u5355\u5e74\u201c\u5224\u6b7b\u5211\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u957f\u671f\u653f\u6cbb\u534f\u8c03\u76ee\u6807\uff1a\u7528\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u6307\u5bfc\u6301\u7eed\u884c\u52a8\u3002","_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[787296031],"tags":[787296082,787296083,787296086,787296084,787296032,787296085,787296033,787296087],"class_list":["post-16677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-applied-philosophy","tag-1-5c-climate-target","tag-1-5c-climate-target-zh","tag-climate-risk","tag-paris-agreement","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions","tag-paris-agreement-zh","tag-when-numbers-start-making-decisions-zh","tag-climate-risk-zh",""],"translatepress_titles":{"en_AU":"Is 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