{"id":16317,"date":"2026-08-10T20:08:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T10:08:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/why-can-confident-ai-be-completely-wrong\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T20:08:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T10:08:57","slug":"why-can-confident-ai-be-completely-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/why-can-confident-ai-be-completely-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"AI\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u6709\u628a\u63e1\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u9519\u8bef\uff1f \/ Why Can AI Sound Confident and Still Be Completely Wrong?"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7b80\u77ed\u7b54\u6848<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\u6d41\u7545\u8bed\u6c14\u548c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6b63\u786e\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u751f\u6210\u5f0fAI\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u662f\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u4ea7\u751f\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5408\u9002\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u6bcf\u53e5\u8bdd\u8f93\u51fa\u524d\u81ea\u52a8\u5b8c\u6210\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b66\u4f1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u8868\u8fbe\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u6b64\u83b7\u5f97\u4e0e\u8bed\u6c14\u7b49\u91cf\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u7b54\u6848\u8d8a\u5b8c\u6574\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u8d8a\u8fde\u8d2f\u3001\u5f15\u7528\u683c\u5f0f\u8d8a\u903c\u771f\uff0c\u4eba\u53cd\u800c\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u201c\u50cf\u7b54\u6848\u201d\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u9996\u5148\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4ece\u5927\u91cf\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u8bcd\u8bed\u3001\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6536\u5230\u95ee\u9898\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u6839\u636e\u63d0\u793a\u4e0e\u5df2\u6709\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u751f\u6210\u540e\u7eed\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u80fd\u591f\u91cd\u5efa\u5f88\u591a\u771f\u5b9e\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210\u590d\u6742\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u8f93\u51fa\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u67e5\u8be2\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u4ea7\u751f\u7b26\u5408\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5148\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u6761\u53ef\u5ba1\u8ba1\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u624d\u5141\u8bb8\u8bf4\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u8bad\u7ec3\u6750\u6599\u5305\u542b\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u5e38\u89c1\u5e76\u4e14\u95ee\u9898\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u65f6\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f80\u5f80\u6307\u5411\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u5f53\u95ee\u9898\u7f55\u89c1\u3001\u542b\u7cca\u3001\u6d89\u53ca\u6700\u65b0\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6216\u9700\u8981\u62fc\u63a5\u51e0\u4e2a\u76f8\u4f3c\u5b9e\u4f53\u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u7b26\u5408\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5ef6\u7eed\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u751f\u6210\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u4f1a\u7528\u5408\u7406\u7684\u4eba\u540d\u3001\u65e5\u671f\u3001\u673a\u6784\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u586b\u8865\u7a7a\u767d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>NIST\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u201cconfabulation\u201d\uff1a\u751f\u6210\u5f0fAI\u81ea\u4fe1\u5730\u5448\u73b0\u9519\u8bef\u6216\u865a\u5047\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0e\u63d0\u793a\u4e0d\u7b26\u3001\u5185\u90e8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u865a\u6784\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6216\u5f15\u7528\u3002NIST\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u6309\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u5e03\u4ea7\u751f\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5728\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u957f\u56de\u7b54\u4e0e\u9700\u8981\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e13\u4e1a\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u9886\u57df\u5c24\u5176\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.6028\/NIST.AI.600-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NIST AI 600-1: Generative AI 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href=\"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/how-to-verify-ai-without-redoing-the-work\/\">\u600e\u6837\u5feb\u901f\u9a8c\u8bc1AI\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u628a\u5de5\u4f5c\u91cd\u65b0\u505a\u4e00\u904d\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/how-to-check-ai-citations-data-and-links\/\">AI\u5217\u51fa\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3001\u6570\u636e\u548c\u94fe\u63a5\u600e\u6837\u5224\u65ad\u771f\u5047\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u672c\u7cfb\u5217\uff1a<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/ai-judgment\/\">\u300aAI\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u4fe1\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1f\u300b\u5168\u90e8\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17897162,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_geoff_meta_description_en":"Explains why AI\u2019s fluent, confident answers can still be completely wrong: generation isn\u2019t fact checking, and users must verify facts, inferences and 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