{"id":11867,"date":"2026-01-19T08:59:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T21:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/?p=11867"},"modified":"2026-01-19T12:53:37","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T01:53:37","slug":"cyfh10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoffreychen.com\/zh\/cyfh10\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u8bef\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5982\u4f55\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8bef\u89e3"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u770b\u4f3c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u4e00\u76f4\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u50cf\u7cbe\u795e\u5206\u6790\u5b66\u3001\u8fdb\u5316\u8bba\u3001\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bba\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bb9\u6613\u76f4\u89c2\u60f3\u8c61\u548c\u76f4\u63a5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e0d\u65ad\u6709\u4eba\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7a76\u7adf\u7b97\u4e0d\u7b97\u79d1\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56f4\u7ed5\u201c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\uff0c\u54f2\u5b66\u754c\u66fe\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u975e\u5e38\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u8bba\u6218\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u300b\uff081934\uff09\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86 falsifiability<\/em> \u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u8bd1\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\u201c\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6027\u201d\u3002\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0e\u57fa\u672c\u89c2\u5bdf\u9648\u8ff0\u4e4b\u95f4\u6240\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0e\u5f53\u65f6\u903b\u8f91\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u54f2\u5b66\u4e2d\u6d41\u884c\u3001\u5728\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0a\u770b\u4f3c\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u201c\u53ef\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6027\u201d\u4f5c\u4e86\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8981\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8bf8\u5982\u201c\u6240\u6709\u5929\u9e45\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u7684\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6027\u5730\u89c2\u5bdf\u6240\u6709\u5929\u9e45\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5728\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e00\u53ea\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u5426\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e00\u65ad\u8a00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u548c\u54f2\u5b66\u754c\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f62\u6210\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u5e93\u6069\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ece\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9760\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\u5728\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u3002\u5728\u5e38\u89c4\u79d1\u5b66\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u53cd\u4f8b\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5438\u6536\uff0c\u5f02\u5e38\u88ab\u6682\u65f6\u6401\u7f6e\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u6b21\u5931\u8d25\u5c31\u88ab\u629b\u5f03\u3002\u5e93\u6069\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u5f97\u201c\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6027\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5c42\u9762\u96be\u4ee5\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u4f0a\u59c6\u96f7\u00b7\u62c9\u5361\u6258\u65af\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\u5728\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u539f\u59cb\u5f62\u5f0f\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e3b\u6d41\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u9760\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6027\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u201c\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6027\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u4e5f\u65f6\u5e38\u9047\u5230\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6211\u4e00\u6b21\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3b\u52a8\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ece\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0a\u5c31\u5bf9\u5b83\u975e\u5e38\u53cd\u611f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u611f\u5e76\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5c42\u9762\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5728\u5728\u7684\u751f\u7406\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u65f6\uff0c\u80a0\u80c3\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4e0d\u9002\u611f\u3002\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u53cd\u903b\u8f91\u3001\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5e76\u4e0d\u590d\u6742\u2014\u2014\u201c\u4f2a\u201d\u600e\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u201c\u8bc1\u201d\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u540e\u6765\u6211\u7684\u9605\u8bfb\u9010\u6e10\u4ece\u4ee5\u4e2d\u6587\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8f6c\u5411\u4ee5\u82f1\u6587\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u624d\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u611f\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002Falsifiability<\/em> \u7684\u5b57\u9762\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u201c\u5b58\u5728\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u3002\u968f\u7740\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u6df1\u5165\uff0c\u6211\u624d\u9010\u6e10\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8bd5\u56fe\u7ed9\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4ed6\u771f\u6b63\u505a\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u5212\u5b9a\u4e00\u6761\u8fb9\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\uff0c\u5374\u957f\u671f\u88ab\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u4ee5\u201c\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6027\u201d\u4e3a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u91cd\u9519\u8bef\uff1a\u65e2\u8bef\u89e3\u4e86\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\u7684\u672c\u610f\uff0c\u53c8\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u6781\u5176\u4e0d\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u600e\u6837\u5206\u6790\uff0cfalsifiability<\/em> \u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u91cc\uff0c\u90fd\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0e\u201c\u8bc1\u201d\u6709\u5173\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\u51e0\u4e4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u9700\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u8bed\u8a00\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u903b\u8f91\u542b\u4e49\u548c\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u6307\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u96be\u4ee5\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u201c\u8bc1\u201d\u5728\u6c49\u8bed\u4e2d\u59cb\u7ec8\u5e26\u6709\u786e\u8bc1\u6027\u7684\u610f\u5473\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u201c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u201d\u201c\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u8fd8\u662f\u201c\u8bc1\u660e\u201d\uff0c\u90fd\u6307\u5411\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u628a\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u5b58\u7591\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e4b\u6210\u7acb\u3001\u5750\u5b9e\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u52a8\u6447\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u8bc1\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u52a8\u8bcd\u5929\u7136\u5730\u4e0e\u201c\u771f\u201d\u201c\u5b9e\u201d\u201c\u662f\u201d\u76f8\u8fde\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0e\u5426\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u8fde\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u4f2a\u201d\u5219\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u793a\u865a\u5047\u3001\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3001\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u628a\u201c\u8bc1\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4f2a\u201d\u5f3a\u884c\u62fc\u63a5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5728\u6c49\u8bed\u5185\u90e8\u5236\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7d27\u5f20\u751a\u81f3\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u8bed\u8a00\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8bf4\u201c\u8bc1\u5047\u201d\u6216\u201c\u8bc1\u4e0d\u771f\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\u65b9\u5f0f\u660e\u663e\u8fdd\u80cc\u6c49\u8bed\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u8bcd\u5982\u679c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u786e\u7acb\u67d0\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5c31\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u7528\u6765\u786e\u7acb\u4e00\u79cd\u5426\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8bc1\u4f2a\u4e4b\u540e\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u201c\u4f2a\u201d\u4e86\uff0c\u53c8\u600e\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u5462\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u201c\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u8bf4\u8c0e\u201d\u8fd9\u53e5\u6096\u8bba\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u79d1\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5c01\u95ed\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u79cd\u4e00\u65e6\u88ab\u53cd\u9a73\u5c31\u6574\u4f53\u5012\u584c\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u4f8b\u201d\uff0c\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u7ec4\u7279\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u7279\u5b9a\u8f85\u52a9\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u7279\u5b9a\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f7f\u67d0\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5931\u6548\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5931\u6548\u6307\u5411\u7684\u662f\u8d70\u51fa\u4e86\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7ec8\u6781\u88c1\u51b3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u82f1\u6587\u4e2d\u7684 falsifiability<\/em> \u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u4e3a\u5047\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u5b58\u5728\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u3002\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5236\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5177\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\u7684\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u5b83\u628a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u6084\u7136\u8f6c\u6362\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u8bf4\u51fa\u8bf8\u5982\u201c\u67d0\u7406\u8bba\u88ab\u8bc1\u4f2a\u4e86\u201d\u201c\u4e00\u65e6\u88ab\u8bc1\u4f2a\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bf4\u6cd5\u65e0\u8bba\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u90fd\u96be\u4ee5\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u5b58\u5728\u88ab\u53cd\u9a73\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u201c\u5141\u8bb8\u51fa\u9519\u201d\u201c\u5bf9\u53cd\u4f8b\u5f00\u653e\u201d\u201c\u5177\u6709\u5931\u8d25\u6761\u4ef6\u201d\u7b49\u8868\u8ff0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bf4\u6cd5\u65e2\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u539f\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u53c8\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u628a\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u8bef\u8bf4\u6210\u771f\u503c\u88c1\u51b3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u80fd\u591f\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u6d3b\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5e26\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u4e13\u4e1a\u6743\u5a01\u7684\u8272\u5f69\uff0c\u4eff\u4f5b\u4e13\u5bb6\u6545\u610f\u4e0d\u8bf4\u4eba\u8bdd\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u8fd8\u662f\u8981\u8865\u5145\u4e00\u70b9\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e13\u4e1a\u672f\u8bed\u5728\u957f\u671f\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e13\u6709\u540d\u8bcd\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u671b\u6587\u751f\u4e49\u3002\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8352\u8c2c\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u4e00\u4ee3\u53c8\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u8bef\u89e3\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u88ab\u51a0\u4ee5\u201c\u4e13\u4e1a\u540d\u8bcd\u201d\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5c31\u81ea\u52a8\u83b7\u5f97\u514d\u75ab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

What is science? This seemingly simple question has in fact been debated for a very long time. In particular, theories such as psychoanalysis, evolutionary theory, and relativity operate on temporal and spatial scales that far exceed what people can easily grasp through intuition or verify directly. For this reason, they have repeatedly been questioned over the years as to whether they truly count as science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Around the question of \u201cwhat counts as science,\u201d there have been intense debates within philosophy. The philosopher of science Karl Popper, in The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934), introduced the concept of falsifiability, later translated into Chinese as \u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6027\u201d (literally, \u201cverifiability of falsity\u201d). Popper emphasized an asymmetry between universal laws and basic observational statements, and contrasted falsifiability with the intuitively similar notion of \u201cverifiability\u201d that was popular at the time among logical positivists. He pointed out that to verify a statement such as \u201call swans are white,\u201d one would have to observe all swans empirically, which is in principle impossible; by contrast, observing just one black swan is sufficient to refute the claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Popper\u2019s view earned respect in both scientific and philosophical circles, but it never became a universal consensus. Thomas Kuhn argued that, from the perspective of the history of science, science does not in fact operate through falsification in this straightforward way. During periods of normal science, counterexamples are often absorbed, anomalies are temporarily set aside, and theories are not abandoned simply because of a single failure. Kuhn\u2019s work made it difficult, at the level of actual scientific practice, to maintain the claim that falsifiability is equivalent to the scientific method. Later, Imre Lakatos further argued that while Popper was right in principle, his model was overly simplified and could not, in its original form, be directly applied to real scientific practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost no contemporary mainstream philosopher holds that whether a theory is scientific can be determined solely by falsifiability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I encountered the term \u201cfalsifiability\u201d quite early on, not only in science and technology but also in legal contexts. Yet I never once chose to use it myself, because I felt an immediate and intense aversion to it. This aversion was not merely intellectual; it was a genuine physiological reaction. When I saw the term, I would feel a distinct discomfort in my stomach. When people used it to explain what science is, it struck me as utterly anti-logical and anti-intuitive. The reason is simple: how can \u201cfalsity\u201d possibly be \u201cverified\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only later, as my reading gradually shifted from primarily Chinese sources to primarily English ones, did I realize that this aversion stemmed largely from a mistranslation. Taken literally, falsifiability is much closer to \u201cthe possibility of being wrong.\u201d With deeper reading, I came to see that Karl Popper was not trying to offer a positive definition of science at all; what he was really doing was drawing a boundary around it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Chinese context, however, the question \u201cwhat is science\u201d has long been reduced to the criterion of \u201cfalsifiability.\u201d This involves at least two layers of error: a misunderstanding of Popper\u2019s original intent, and the adoption of an extremely inappropriate translation. No matter how one analyzes it, there is little in the word falsifiability that bears any relation to the notion of \u201cverification.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Chinese-speaking world, \u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d has almost become a philosophical term that no longer requires explanation. Yet in terms of linguistic structure, logical meaning, and epistemological orientation, it contains problems that are hard to ignore. In Chinese, the verb \u201c\u8bc1\u201d always carries a sense of confirmation. Whether in \u201c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u201d (to verify), \u201c\u8bc1\u636e\u201d (evidence), or \u201c\u8bc1\u660e\u201d (proof), it points to the same thing: fixing a previously doubtful judgment so that it becomes established, affirmed, and no longer open to question. Precisely for this reason, \u201c\u8bc1\u201d is naturally associated with \u201ctrue,\u201d \u201creal,\u201d and \u201cis,\u201d rather than with negation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u4f2a,\u201d by contrast, signifies falsity, invalidity, or \u201cnot the case.\u201d Forcing \u201c\u8bc1\u201d and \u201c\u4f2a\u201d together to form \u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d creates an internal tension\u2014if not a direct conflict\u2014within the Chinese language itself. In everyday usage, we do not say \u201c\u8bc1\u5047\u201d (\u201cverify falsity\u201d) or \u201c\u8bc1\u4e0d\u771f\u201d (\u201cverify non-truth\u201d), because such expressions blatantly violate Chinese linguistic intuition. If a verb is meant to establish a state of affairs, it is ill-suited to establishing a negative one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If falsifiability is taken as the criterion of science, then once something has been \u201cfalsified,\u201d it is already \u201cfalse\u201d\u2014so how could it still be scientific? This resembles the paradox of the statement \u201cI am lying.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientific theories are not closed logical propositions. They are never the kind of structures that collapse wholesale the moment they are refuted. Any so-called \u201ccounterexample\u201d merely renders a model ineffective under a specific set of conditions, auxiliary assumptions, and measurement methods. Such failure indicates that the theory has moved beyond its domain of applicability, not that it has received a final verdict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What falsifiability actually describes in English is not \u201cbeing proven false,\u201d but \u201cthe possibility of being wrong.\u201d The translation \u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d introduces a deeply misleading shift: it quietly turns a feature about possibility into a judgment about conclusions. As a result, people begin to say things like \u201cthis theory has been falsified\u201d or \u201conce falsified, it is no longer scientific,\u201d statements that are difficult to sustain both logically and in actual scientific practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, we could perfectly well use expressions such as \u201cthe possibility of being refuted,\u201d \u201callowing for error,\u201d \u201copenness to counterexamples,\u201d or \u201chaving conditions of failure.\u201d These formulations preserve the core meaning of the original concept while avoiding the mistake of presenting conditional risk as a verdict on truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason \u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d has survived for so long is largely that it carries an aura of professional authority, as if experts were deliberately refusing to speak plain language. I should add, however, that once technical terms have been used for a long time, they do acquire relatively fixed meanings as proper terms, and cannot simply be interpreted literally. Unfortunately, this absurd translation continues to influence generation after generation, and a misunderstanding does not become immune to criticism merely by being labeled a \u201ctechnical term.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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